京沪高铁即将上市，通过分析其长期价值，我们探讨中国高铁的盈利模式。中国高铁的三个盈利要素与两种运营模式决定其ROE 的天花板。“八纵八横”高铁网络位置优越，出行需求无虞。

2019 年航空行业回顾：“特殊因素”致供需双弱。2019 年1-11 月行业旅客人数增速8.1%，RPK 增速9.6%，ASK 增速9.5%，客座率同比略增0.1 个百分点。

我们建议投资人沿着（1）景气上行、（2）国企改革、（3）科技创新三条主线把握2020 年航天航空板块的投资机会。2020 年是十三五收官之年，我们认为，五年计划末产品集中交付及结算是推动企业2020 年业绩增长的主要动力，国企重组、混改、科研院所改制、定价议价规则改革等为企业注入新的成长契机动力。国产大飞机、商业航天、航空发动机、北斗导航等重点科技创新项目的商用为企业带来新的发展机遇。

2019夏秋时刻增速大幅回升，市场担忧供给即将放量，但夏秋航季实际ASK增速回落至10%以下，并未大幅增长。

Landing gears are one of the most critical sub-systems of an aircraft. It supports the aircraft on ground during landing, take-off, and taxing operations. There is an increase in aircraft orders from various airlines around the world. This is primarily due to an increase in the number of passengers opting for air travel. Air passenger growth is the highest in the Asia-Pacific region. Airlines operating in these regions are focusing on expanding their fleet, in order to cater to the increasing demand. For instance, in early 2019, China Aviation Supplies Holding Company (CAS) signed a General Terms Agreement (GTA) for the purchase of 300 aircraft (290 A320 Family aircraft and 10 A350 XWB Family aircraft). This contract was worth USD 35 billion.

年初至今， 国防军工指数上涨23.88%，跑赢上证综指（16.77%），跑输沪深300（29.62%）及创业板指（38.09%）。

2019 年 1-10 月固定资产投资累计同比增长 5.20%，相对上半年有所下降，其中基建/ 房地产/ 制造业/ 采矿业投资分别同比增长3.26%/9.60%/2.60%/25.10%。