重申长期检测与社交隔离的必要性。新冠病毒的传播规律类似季节性爆发的大流感，会随着免疫力的持续时间呈现周期性循环爆发。在疫苗成功研发之前，新冠病毒的流行可能会长期持续，且新冠肺炎与季节性流感传播期重合，目前全民筛查与严格实施隔离政策可实现有效疫情防控，除非重症监护能力大幅提高，或者特效药、疫苗成功上市后，才可考虑放松防疫措施。

Rising prevalence of stroke, increasing adoption of exoskeleton, and growing geriatric population at the global level are some of the key factors anticipated to influence the market growth over the forecast period. Moreover, growing usage of exoskeleton in the healthcare industry is anticipated to drive its global market over the forecast period. In addition, with the increasing number of disabled people, there has been an increase in the demand for robotic rehabilitation around the world. The role of technology in healthcare has become evident with the enhanced rate of survival from medical disorders, such as stroke. Robotic rehabilitation and assistive technologies, therefore, promise to ease stress on the physiotherapy staff and control expenseswhile refining patients’ quality of life. Mobile exoskeletons are anticipated to witness significant growth as they can be worn outside or in a person’s home. They are also found supporting the powered hip and knee motion to enable individuals with spinal cord injuries to stand and walk. On the other hand, the cost of exoskeleton is generally found to be high and is not affordable by most people in need. However, there aremany efforts taking place in order to reduce these prices by developing cheaper components so that the technology becomemore accessible for people.

The growth of the extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) system market can be contributed to the growing cardiovascular and respiratory disease burden, rising adoption of ECMO as a bridge to lung transplantation, growing number of ECMO centers, conferences, and training programs to increase awareness, and increasing technological advancements. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death across the world. Approximately 17.9 million people died due to cardiovascular diseases globally in 2016, and it accounted for almost 31%of all the deathsworldwide. In addition, the rising geriatric population and the increasing number of people suffering from diseases in populous countries, such as India and China, are the factors that are expected to offer significant growth opportunities for ECMO systems. Furthermore, the rising popularity of ECMO, due to its increasing applications and the upcoming new advancements in the products, is expected to act as a key contributor in the market’s growth. According to the study of Cureus, the ECMO therapy is observed to be a quite efficient technique in patients suffering from cardiogenic shock and cardiac arrest. It is a preferred therapy and the outcomes are found to be effective in cases of pulmonary embolismand pulmonary hypertension.

Dermatological therapeutics market is being driven by the increase in incidence rates of dermatology diseases, increase in awareness levels of disease progression and etiology and increase in the elderly population. According to the WHO, skin diseases in developing countries has become a serious impact on people’s quality of life, causing productivity lost at work and other places, and discrimination due to disfigurement. Skin changes may also indicate the presence of more serious skin disorders that require treatment. According to theWorld Allergy Organization 2018 fact sheet, globally between 5-30% of the pediatric and 1- 10% of the adult population have atopic dermatitis. According to World Population Prospects 2019 report (United Nations, 2019), there were about 703 million people aged 65 years or over in the world in 2019. The number of elderly population is projected to double to 1.5 billion in 2050. Worldwide, the share of the population aged 65 years or over increased from 6% in 1990 to 9% in 2019.Moreover, by 2050, 1 in 6 people in the world will be over the age of 65, up from 1 in 11 in 2019. As the number of elderly population is expected to grow worldwide and this population are more prone to dermatological disorders which drives the market in near future.

本周医药行业下降 0.68%，创业板下降 1.63%，前期涨幅较高的疫苗股、疫 情股调整较为明显。如智飞生物、三鑫医疗、康华生物、南卫股份、尚荣医 疗、金域医学、振德医疗等。疫情相关个股需要有业绩坚实支撑，需要考虑 业绩的长久性，以及政策定价的风险。

近期行情：自 8月 3 日至 8月 7 日的交易周内，恒生指数下跌 0.26%；恒生中国企业指数上涨0.23%；恒生医疗保健指数上涨0.97%。

6 月30 日，医药观澜讯，近日，诺诚健华宣布其在研泛FGFR 抑制剂ICP-192 治疗尿路上皮癌的2 期临床研究完成首例患者入组。ICP-192 是诺诚健华旗下具有全球自主知识产权的1 类创新药，是可用于治疗多种实体瘤的高选择性小分子泛FGFR 抑制剂，目前正在中国和美国开展临床1/2 期研究。

创新消费升级既是整个医药大行业的投资逻辑，亦是疫苗这个小行业的发展推动力。随着行业供需结构的变化，国产疫苗，尤其是国产二类苗的安全性、保护力度与范围不断提升，不管是从西林瓶到预灌封的包装升级，还是vero 细胞到二倍体细胞的工艺升级，抑或是多糖到多糖结合、单苗到联苗、单价到多价的产品升级，由消费者自费的创新二类苗普遍具有更强的定价权。而随着我国人均可支配收入及公众健康意识的普遍提升，二类苗渗透率也有望进一步提升。具有创新能力的国产疫苗企业有望迎来“量价齐升”行情。

行业评级及投资策略：目前全球已经有6 款新冠疫苗进入临床试验3期，预计最快2020 年底有望获批上市，即将开启商业化销售的阶段。新冠疫苗商业化生产带来疫苗辅料产业链的景气度提升,叠加三季度是流感和肺炎疫苗接种季，我们看好接种率的提升，因此我们下半年全面看好疫苗行业，给予行业推荐评级。

随着国内企业逐渐恢复正常经营，7月上旬医药表现不佳，但下旬迎来强势上涨，跑赢指数。疫苗相关产业链引起关注。国内疫情仍有持续的检测需求，医疗器械中的IVD以及疫情相关的移动DR、呼吸机、监护仪等海外出口继续。呼吸机近期有报道供需紧缺关系逐渐逆转。当前行业热点公司和板块处于较高估值，但在10月海外疫苗临床数据出台及美国大选等宏观重大事件未落地之前，医药板块的强势有望维持。