In recent years, the demand for hydrogen peroxide in the paper and pulp industry has significantly grown, due to improved paper quality and increased yield of wood mass. In addition, hydrogen peroxide is used in eco-friendly bleach products, in order to remove chlorine compounds through bleaching processes.  In the paper and pulp industry, hydrogen peroxide is primarily used for: Bleaching of wood pulp. Bleaching of cellulose. Recycling of wastepaper (de-inking)  North America, Asia, and Europe together account for most of the world’s paper and pulp production. China had the world’s largest paper and pulp production with 99.3 million metric ton as of 2018, followed by the United States. Other leading pulp and paper producers in the world include Germany, Japan, Finland, and Canada. The global production of paper and pulp is increasing constantly (as shown in the figure), despite at a slow pace. Potential regions, like Asia-Pacific, are witnessing an increase in the volume of paper production, since the demand for packaging has increased recently. This can be attributed to the growing demand for eco-friendly products and increasing sales of newspapers and books, due to growing population in the region.

In the recent years, the sales of internal combustion engines, which are the main source of environmental pollution, declined significantly, primarily due to the rising awareness regarding environmental pollution. The pollution caused by automotive had been increasing drastically, since the past few decades, and it is estimated that about 30% of air pollution is primarily due to automotive emission. Sudden increase in automotive pollution considerably impacted the environment, intensifying the threat of air pollution in most of the big cities around the world.

2010 年以来，石油 化工行业整体处于增速下行阶段，石油化工行业 A 股上市公司的整体收 入增速从2010年上半年的71.1%年滑至 2016年上半年的-14.5%。2016年， 海外原油价格触底反弹，叠加国内供给侧改革推动工业品价格反弹，国内 化工产品价格进入上升通道，推动行业盈利恢复增长。2016 年上半年到 2019 年一上半年，石油化工营业收入开始转正，2019 年上半年营业收入 同比增长 12.5%，但随着下游产品价格的下跌，石化板块的净利润出现下 滑，2019 年上半年净利润同比下降 11.1%。目前，石油化工行业 PE(TTM) 为 17.71 倍，低于过去 5 年间的平均水平；行业 PB 为 1.02 倍，接近历史 最低水平，行业整体估值明显偏低。

功能性护肤已经成为了当下化妆品品类布局的风口，而随着消费者美妆消费理 念的加速升级以及相应渠道的快速发展下，预计行业仍未来具快速发展动能。 从本土企业来看，一方面，目前已有不少优质传统品牌通过多品牌布局的方式 切入功能性护肤市场，如上海家化旗下的玉泽，以及珀莱雅前期公告合作的圣 瑰兰品牌等，但相应品牌布局对集团整体占比贡献仍较为有限。而从专业功能 性护肤品牌企业来看，我们认为，华熙生物作为透明质酸原料行业的龙头，建 立了产品与原料的创新和研发体系，形成完整的护肤品研发链，并采用制药的 标准开发一系列具有显著功效，更加安全稳定的护肤品，其具有成长为功能性 化妆品领域龙头的潜质。 

短期看，2020 年房地产竣工面积、基建投资有望回暖，后周期相关产品如涂料、减水剂以及上游的钛白粉、纯碱、PVC 和MDI 等有望迎来需求回暖的向上周期。长期看，各行业集中度对标全球仍处于较低水平，在下游集采模式推广以及环保监管趋严的背景下，看好龙头份额提升。重点推荐三友化工、金石资源、龙蟒佰利、华鲁恒升、万华化学、合盛硅业、苏博特、三棵树。

周期行业景气度在2019 年中逐步下行，部分行业产品价格已接近生产成本，同时市场预期也相对悲观，从估值上看，申万化工行业指数最新PB（2019 年12 月30 日值）仅为1.89，低于历史上95%的时间。展望2020 年，我们认为需求端有望反弹，主要原因：1）中美贸易摩擦逐步缓和；2）房地产投资趋于平稳；3）国内汽车、空调等需求有望回暖。