维持行业强于大市评级。2019年以来化工产品价格普遍回落，多家公司2019
年业绩预喜。预计未来行业集中度将持续提升，龙头企业有望获得更多市场
份额与更高盈利水平。

本次突发疫情传染范围影响程度超出政府和大众预期，疫情所造成的交通管制、延迟开工、需求下降等因素对化工行业产生了较大的阶段性影响。虽然目前化工行业整体处于淡季，但是受疫情影响，化工品库存水平有明显上升，我们预计一季度化工品PPI 难以有明显改善，仍建议重点关注化工产业链下游制品及新材料环节的相关投资机会。

受疫情持续扩散影响，短期国内化工行业普遍遭遇了运输受阻、需求萎缩、库存压力大幅上升等多重的困难。非常时期下，假期期间因担忧中国疫情的扩散导致需求大幅下滑，国际原油价格大幅下跌，成本坍塌下上游能化品种价格普遍重构，进而拖累中游化工品价格下滑。

造纸板块：生活用纸>包装用纸>文化用纸。文化纸方面，现阶段双胶纸需求集中在药品说明书以及政府文件印刷领域，出版社招标预计将会延迟；03年各种报刊杂志及海报宣传仍较盛行，且SARS期间有较多卫生宣传海报与报纸也对铜版纸和新闻纸的需求形成了支撑；但目前随着互联网的普及，上述现象将不复存在，文化纸价格面临较大压力；包装纸方面，药品包装盒较多采用白卡纸，快递增多也将刺激箱板瓦楞纸的需求。但疫情对出口的影响依然值得长期关注，此外包装纸整体与经济景气度密切相关，若疫情形成对经济明显冲击，亦将对整个包装纸行业形成负面影响。生活用纸方面，产品具备必选消费属性，在轻工行业中受影响相对最小，且消毒类湿巾需求大增，关注中顺洁柔。

本周我们分析疫情对化妆品行业的影响。回顾2003 年非典时期，从数据上看，与其他可选消费品相比，非典时期化妆品表现相对较为稳定，5 月受疫情影响明显。4、5 月份化妆品零售额分别同比增长20.3%、14.6%，增速均同比有所提升。但5 月份增速在全年排名倒数第二。2004 年5 年受益疫情低基数，化妆品增速达37.6%，为2001 年以来单月最高，明显看出疫情对化妆品月度零售带来错位影响。我们认为一方面是行业自身发展节奏的体现，本土品牌密集成立期+CS 开始黄金十年，共同瞄准中低线城市消费升级。另一方面化妆品并非全部受损，部分品类如个人清洁、消毒类产品在疫情中利好，洗护类产品存在一定刚性。

自2018 年11 月开始，化工行业进入新一轮的去库存周期，2019 年全年化工行业产成品存货同比下降明显。开工率和产销方面，化工行业开工率自2018 年年底筑底后缓慢回升，产销持续维持高位。需求端，2019 年受经济增速回落、中美关系变化等因素影响，需求端持续疲软，化工品价格普遍大幅下滑。而年底开始，化工行业出口交货值与PPI同比增速均出现企稳回升趋势，叠加大部分化工产品价格均处于历史低位，我们认为未来化工行业周期下行空间有限，行业有望迎来反转。

过去一周化工指数下跌-3.38%，同期沪深300 下跌-3.50%。过去一周化工子板块，涨幅较大的是合成革(3.48%)、氨纶(3.06%)、无机盐(0.81%)、其他橡胶制品(0.63%)、改性塑料(0.14%)。

中国化工品价格指数(CCPI);本周较上周持平，两周涨幅微跌0.2%,较上月同期上涨0.1%，年内涨幅0.1%，相比去年同期下降12.8%。

The North America compound management market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 13.9% from 2019 - 2027. The market of compound management in the North America region is majorly contributed by the US. The region is experiencing the robust growth of the market owing to increase in the number of clinical trials along with an increase in R&D expenses made by pharmaceutical companies. The top 10 industry players operating in the market of Compound management across the globe include, , Brooks Life Sciences, Tecan Trading AG, Hamilton Company, TTP Labtech, Frontier Scientific Services, Biosero Inc., Evotec, Icagen, Inc., Wuxi Apptec, and TCG Lifesciences Pvt. Ltd.

PVC compounds provide cost benefit and per pound of PVC in small diameter pressure water pipes and fittings, over other materials, such as copper, steel or high-performance cross-linked polyethylene (PEX). Other than being cost-intensive, copper, steel or PEX are also expensive to install than PVC pipes. In these systems, the cost of installation can be as much as ten times the cost of the pipe itself, so even small differences in the ease of installation can result in large differences in the total cost of using a substitute material instead of PVC. PVC pipe holds a commanding share in large diameter pressure water and sanitary sewer pipe because of its low cost, ease of installation, long and reliable service life, and its low replacement and maintenance cost. Ductile iron and concrete are the major substitutes in these applications, and their installation costs are higher, particularly for concrete since many more pipe joints are required. Replacement and repair costs are much higher for concrete than for PVC pipe. Additional costs are also imposed by the loss of water, due to main breaks and pumping costs, which may be higher for these surrogate materials. The higher installation cost for concrete pipe also contributes to the substitution cost for PVC in storm sewers. Therefore, PVC offers a much better cost-saving option for the aforementioned applications, both in terms of material and installation.