在当前资源环境形势日益严峻的背景下，加强我国煤炭需求峰值预测，提前做好产能规划与部署，对于科学推动煤炭消费总量控制，实现煤炭产业健康、稳定和可持续发展意义重大。本研究基于计量经济学理论，针对改革开放后（1978－2013年）的样本数据，构建了基于煤炭需求的多因素协整模型（CM）、误差修正模型（ECM）和向量误差修正模型（VECM），比较发现，ECM的模型性能和拟合效果更佳；随后，基于ECM对未来我国煤炭的需求峰值进行了预测和分析，结果表明，我国煤炭需求峰值预计出现在2020年，峰值水平为45亿吨；2020年前，煤炭需求量年均增幅3.9%，2020年后开始出现下降，年均降幅0.76%，到2030年降至42亿吨。面对即将到来的煤炭峰值，政府管理部门应及早谋划、加强应对，切实推动煤炭产业转型升级和可持续发展。

关键词：煤炭需求；峰值；应对

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2004年西气东输管道的正式商业运作，标志着我国天然气进入快速发展期。近10年来，我国已形成了“西气东输、海气登陆、就近供应"的供气格局，天然气行业发展具备了一定的基础。天然气绝对消费量已从2004年的341亿立方米增长到2013年的1640亿立方米，我国已超过伊朗成为世界第三大天然气消费国。然而，随着经济的快速发展，我国环境压力持续增大。为此，国务院推出了大气污染防治行动计划(国发[2013]37号)等环境政策。天然气作为实现节能减排和治理大气污染最现实的清洁能源，进一步加大发展力度势在必行。笔者拟在此背景下，综合评价我国天然气资源、市场、基础设施现状及水平，探讨未来天然气行业的定位以及实现“大力发展"所需要的基础条件；基于“大力发展"的视角，对我国未来天然气供应能否满足市场需求目标，基础设施建设能力能否与市场规模相匹配，下游天然气利用能否适应上游发展速度、实现均衡发展，不同用户在未来市场条件下的承受能力等问题和风险进行评估，并根据评估结果，提出具有可实施性的保障措施建议，为促进我国天然气快速发展提供有针对性的参考意见。

关键词：天然气；风险因素；对策建议

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关键词：致密气；年产量

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Wireline refers to a cabling technology used by oil and gas well operators to lower measurement equipment or devices into the well for well intervention, reservoir evaluation, and pipe recovery.

关键词：电缆；石油；天然气；井运营；布线技术；设备；装置入井；修井

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本报告从能源行业事件分析；竞争环境、竞争对手、行业数据等几个方面进行了分析评论。

关键词：行业事件分析；竞争环境；竞争对手；行业数据

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关键词：核电站；安全问题；时间检验

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In support of the national goals for biofuel use in the United States, numerous technologies have been developed that convert biomass to biofuels. Some of these biomass to biofuel conversion technology pathways are operating at commercial scales, while others are in earlier stages of development. The advancement of a new pathway toward commercialization involves various types of progress, including yield improvements, process engineering, and financial performance. Actions of private investors and public programs can accelerate the demonstration and deployment of new conversion technology pathways. These investors (both private and public) will pursue a range of pilot, demonstration, and pioneer scale biorefinery investments; the most cost-effective set of investments for advancing the maturity of any given biomass to biofuel conversion technology pathway is unknown. In some cases, whether or not the pathway itself will ultimately be technically and financially successful is also unknown. This report presents results from the Biomass Scenario Model -- a system dynamics model of the biomass to biofuels system -- that estimate effects of investments in biorefineries at different maturity levels and operational scales. The report discusses challenges in estimating effects of such investments and explores the interaction between this deployment investment and a volumetric production incentive. Model results show that investments in demonstration and deployment have a substantial positive effect on the development of the biofuels industry.

关键词：生物燃料;生物量;成本效率;部署;燃料转换过程;投资;过程工程;生产;技术评估

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The upper operating temperature of tubes in heat exchangers/steam generators is strongly influenced by the degradation that can occur because of the reaction of the exchanger/generator tubing with the deposits that accumulate on the surface of the tubes. In fact, severe corrosion has been observed in some biomass fired systems, particularly with elevated potassium and chlorine concentrations in the deposits. Wood gasifiers have recently been and are currently being constructed at several sites in North America. In these systems, the syngas is burned to produce steam and the performance of the heat exchanger tubes under ash deposits is of great concern. As temperatures of the heat exchangers are increased in an effort to increase their operating efficiency, the performance of the tubes is of greater interest. The corrosion behavior of alloy steel tubes as a function of temperature has been investigated by exposing samples of selected alloys to ash collected from the steam generator fired by syngas produced in wood gasifiers. This study compares corrosion rates from laboratory exposures of synthesis gas and ash at 500 degrees C and 600 degrees C.

关键词：腐蚀,锅炉管;木材;气化灰;合金;生物量;换热器;蒸汽发生器;合成气

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This report documents and compares the results of detailed analyses of the physical and chemical properties of ten advanced alternative and renewable diesel fuels and four commercial ultra low sulfur diesels (ULSDs). A key objective of this study conducted by the AVFL-19 Working Group of the Coordinating Research Council (CRC) Advanced Vehicle/Fuel/Lubricants Committee was to identify the similarities and differences of these emerging advanced alternative and renewable fuels compared to conventional petroleum derived ULSDs. The four advanced alternative fuels consisted of samples derived from gas-to-liquids (GTL), shale oils, and oil sands. The six renewable fuels were derived from biomass sources including plant, animal, and algal lipids and cellulosic materials. For all of these renewable fuels, none of the oxygen atoms inherent in the starting feedstock were detected, suggesting that they have been hydroprocessed. The four ULSDs were produced at different refineries in the US.

关键词：柴油燃料;生物量;化学性质;油砂;石油页岩;石油;物理性能;可再生能源;硫磺;替代燃料

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In this chapter, we review the physiology of switchgrass from seed dormancy till the effects of water and nutrie nts stress on grown plants. These characteristics are presented and discussed mainly at the canopy and whole-plan! level with emphasis on the agro-physiology of the speci es in view of the possible contribution of crop physiology to agricultural de velopment . Swilchgrass is noted for the variable degrees of seed donnancy regulated by endogenous and exogenous factors that determine the successful seedli ng estab lishment. Plant growth rates are determined by temperature while the reproductive phase is controlled mainly by pbotoperiod. There is also evidence that some physiological attlibutes, such as photosynlhesis, transpi ration, and waler use efficiency differ between letraploid, hexaploid, and octoploid ecotypes. But despite these ditTerences, in general switchgrass combines important attributes of efficient use of nu trients and water with high yields thanks to its ability to acqu ire resources from extended soil volumes, especially at deep layers. Moreover al canopy level , resou rcescapture and conservation are determined by morpho-physiological characteristics (C4 photosynthetic pathway, stomatal control of tran 'piration, high leaf area index, low light extinction coefficient) that enhance radiation use efficiency and reduce carbon losses. However, specific information on switchgrass physiology is still missing, in particular deeper understanding of physiological principles controlling the water and nutrients acquisition mechanisms and allocation under suboptimal growing conditions. The physiology of tillering and root respiration are also factors that need further investigation.

关键词：农作物;生理学;二氧化碳;营养;光周期;光合作用;植物生长;辐射;呼吸;幼苗;种子;土壤;物种多样性;柳枝稷;蒸腾;水使用

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