海外能源价格扰动，季报焦煤更优。（1）海外OPEC+大幅减产推动油价强势反弹。OPEC+超预期大幅减产。这一减产量约为全球原油需求的2%。OPEC+减产令美国与OPEC+的关 系或出现裂痕，加剧地缘风险。对煤炭行业来说，油价的大幅反弹进一步增加的国内煤炭替代石油的需求；同时地缘风险加剧，海外能源价格的波动性加大，煤炭行业或在不 确定性增加的情况下受益。我们预测四季度替代油气需要约1200万吨煤炭、弥补水电不足需要1500万吨煤炭。（2）三季报即将发布，板块业绩同比仍增，焦煤相对更优。我们 预计板块3季度业绩整体同比增长。从行业利润总额看，1-8月份行业利润总额为7090亿元，同比增长115.5%。从趋势看，利润增幅逐步收窄，8月利润接近去年同期水平。对于 焦煤公司来说，长协煤比例较高、价格稳定，且焦煤公司去年四季度才开始提高长协煤价，因此三季度焦煤板块业绩增幅相对高一些。目前，三季报预增的主要公司包括盘江 股份、冀中能源、永泰能源和山西焦煤。

煤价高位运行推动行业基本面改善：海外因素干扰、偏低的库存及冬季用煤高峰即 将来临使得煤炭供需有望继续保持偏紧格局，短期煤炭价格支撑较强；中长期煤价 有回调压力但也大概率维持在偏高区间，行业景气度有望延续。

化工用煤短期替代电煤，看好政策发力拉动需求。需求方面，本周多 地气温下降，电煤需求走弱，但进入“金九银十”的施工黄金期，化 工、建材等行业迎来需求复苏，全国范围内水泥产销量已经恢复到正 常水平的70%以上；近期多国发布消息称今年出现“拉尼娜”现象可 能性加大，冬季低温可能加剧，预计电厂将加大今冬明春供暖用煤储 备工作。供给方面，山西地区最近安全事故频发，对于供给形成一定 压力；临近二十大召开，煤矿综合检查力度加大，此外近期大秦线检 修，对于供给有所影响。动力煤市场供需预计仍将保持紧张格局。国 际能源方面，油气价格本周均有下降，欧洲天然气价格自7 月25 日 以来首次降至近1850 美元/千立方米，布伦特原油期货结算价格截 至9 月24 日为86 美元/桶，对海外煤价的支撑作用减弱，本周海外 三大港口煤炭价格有所回落，进口紧张形势有所缓减，但国内外高卡 煤价格倒挂仍旧较大。本周国内动力煤价格出现50-120 元/吨不等 的涨幅，主要是电煤紧张格局之下市场煤价格受下游需求旺季驱动 而持续上涨，冬季储煤预期将对需求提供重要支撑，看好后市需求增 加，市场企稳向好。

原油方面。截至10 月10 日，IPE 布油收96.1 美元/桶，环比上涨3.9%，年初至今上涨21.7%；WTI 原油收90.8 美元/桶，环比上涨5.5%，年初至今上涨19.5%。OPEC+组织宣布决定自11 月起将原油日均产量下调200 万桶，相当于全球石油出口总量2%，提振国际油价走势。

This class includes: Manufacture of continuous-action elevators and conveyors for underground use Manufacture of boring, cutting, sinking and tunnelling machinery (whether or not for underground use) Manufacture of machinery for treating minerals by screening, sorting, separating, washing, crushing etc. Manufacture of concrete and mortar mixers Manufacture of earth-moving machinery: Bulldozers, angle-dozers, graders, scrapers, levellers, mechanical shovels, shovel loaders etc. Manufacture of pile drivers and pile extractors, mortar spreaders, bitumen spreaders, concrete surfacing machinery etc. Manufacture of tracklaying tractors and tractors used in construction or mining Manufacture of bulldozer and angle-dozer blades Manufacture of off-road dumping trucks

2021 年以来，我国煤炭供应持续紧张，煤炭等能源价格创多年来新高，能源安全和煤炭保供引起国家高层及社会的广泛关注。在国内外煤价持续倒挂背景下，保供任务更加依仗国内新增产能，然而，三西地区煤炭资源开发已趋成熟，新疆作为重要的煤炭资源接续区和战略性储备区，能否接续煤炭应急保供，就成为社会各界最关心的问题。

This class includes: Production of worked pearls Production of precious and semi-precious stones in the worked state, including the working of industrial quality stones and synthetic or reconstructed precious or semi-precious stones Working of diamonds Manufacture of jewellery of precious metal or of base metals clad with precious metals, or precious or semi-precious stones, or of combinations of precious metal and precious or semi-precious stones or of other materials Manufacture of goldsmiths' articles of precious metals or of base metals clad with precious metals: Dinnerware, flatware, hollowware, toilet articles, office or desk articles, articles for religious use etc. Manufacture of technical or laboratory articles of precious metal (except instruments and parts thereof): crucibles, spatulas, electroplating anodes etc. Manufacture of precious metal watch bands, wristbands, watch straps and cigarette cases Manufacture of coins, including coins for use as legal tender, whether or not of precious metal Engraving of personal precious and non-precious metal products

This data equals output data for the following ISIC Rev. 4 code: 2396 Cutting, Shaping and Finishing of Stone This class includes: Cutting, shaping and finishing of stone for use in construction, in cemeteries, on roads, as roofing etc. Manufacture of stone furniture This class excludes: Production of rough cut stone, i.e. quarrying activities, see ISIC Code - 0810 Production of millstones, abrasive stones and similar products, see ISIC Code - 2399 Activities of sculptors, see ISIC Code - 9000