Russia’s mining industry is dominated by a few domestic players that control almost all of the minerals mining activity in the country. Russia’s regulatory environment restricts foreign miners from entering the industry which further contributes to the high concentration in the sector. The nickel and diamond subsectors have near-monopolistic structures, with one producer accounting for more than 90% of the total production. Competition is likely to remain low in the Russian mining industry over the next few years, given the government’s restrictive policy towards foreign players. Subsectors that are considered more competitive are coal and gold production. There are 150,00 miners in the coal industry, with the top six players controlling 60% of total production. The leading gold producing company controls slightly over 20% of the market.

预计煤炭产能量继续提升，全年去 预计煤炭产能量继续提升，全年去 产能 1亿吨，新增产能 1.51.51.5亿吨，净增产能 5000500050005000万吨；煤炭产量有望 达到 37.537.537.537.5亿吨，增长约 1亿吨。

10 月当月全国原煤产量完成 30513 万吨，同比增长8.0%，低基数影响同比增速表现较高。下游电力企业耗用虽然处于低位，但电厂错峰采购，煤炭市场交易较为活跃。

稀缺好于过剩定价，当去产能转为保供应，煤炭基本面则更为稳健。步入中高速增长阶段，伴随消费升级和技术进步，煤炭将呈现更多消费属性，波动性降低，进入稳步增长时期，高基数下小幅增长其绝对量增量仍在年均8200万吨左右。但供给在去产能进入深水区，同时先进产能释放与违规产能合法化跨过高峰后，如投资不持续恢复增长，则从产能增速下滑到产量趋稳甚至下滑将是中期趋势，不考虑表外转表内的量，我们预计煤炭产量年增长约在7000万吨左右。