On the back of positive and strong economic growth outturns in both advanced as well as emerging market and developing economies (EMDE), the World Bank (World Bank, 2018) reports that global output expanded by 3.0 per cent in 2017. This represents an improvement of 0.6 percentage point over the preceding year’s growth rate of 2.4 per cent and the largest broadbased growth since 2010. The modest acceleration in global economic activities was driven largely by growth in trade, investments and manufacturing.

Mining is the process of extracting coal, metals, minerals, water, oil, and others from the earth. Based on application, the market is segmented into metal mining, mineral mining, and coal mining. Various types of mining equipment included in the report are mineral processing equipment, surface mining equipment, underground mining equipment, mining drills & breakers, crushing, pulverizing, & screening equipment, and others. Products covered under each type are as follows

从铁矿项目资本支出周期看，铁矿供给拐点将出现，产能增量下行、部分矿山退出。2019 年，预计钢厂的废钢供给增量、四大矿产量均将下行，且近期 Vale 尾坝事故将进一步影响铁矿产量。需求端，中国环保限产减弱，长流程产量将替代部分短流程产量，东南亚、南亚有新投产高炉产能，以上将拉动铁矿需求。此外，地条钢产能去化改变钢铁供给曲线，终端需求未大幅下滑情况下，钢价均可获电炉钢现金成本支撑，有利于铁矿在产业链中获得价格空间。铁矿石或有主题性投资机会，可关注河北宣工、金岭矿业等铁矿石股票。 

2018 年用电量增速再提高，我们预计 2019 年增速为 6.5%，高于中电联预测数据；动力煤受矿难事件冲击，预计供给偏紧局面将延续到三月，长期将被进一步平抑。

供给侧改革有效化解过剩产能、合理控制煤价，行业供需将维持“紧平衡”状态，推荐受益于产能集中的动力煤龙头：陕西煤业、中国神华。

近两周电厂日耗较快下降，显著低于去年春节前后水平，电厂煤炭库存逐渐攀升，春节期间可用天数一度超过近十年历史高点。未来几天电厂库存或将继续提升，但大概率不及去年节后近 400 万吨的上涨幅度，动力煤价短期或承压。