Turkey’s crop production grew at a CAGR of 0.2% over the 2014-2018 period with harvest peaking to an all-time high of 68.4mn tonnes in 2017. In 2018, volumes decreased, reflecting a decline in cereals, which account for over half of total crop production. Other main crops include sugar beets, potatoes and oil seeds. Under the current subsidy programme called the National Agricultural Project, the country is divided into 941 agricultural basins based on climate and soil. Those eligible for support will be farmers who grow crops that are on the subsidised list for the specific basin, as only wheat and forage crops will be subsidised in every basin.

The agriculture sector in the Philippines is market-oriented, but a few regulated pricing mechanisms are in place to protect segments of strategic importance for the country. Several categories such as wheat, meat, and dairy rely heavily on imports, while a significant proportion of domestic coconut and fruit production is exported. Philippine agriculture has suffered from underinvestment, due to policy distortions, low sector efficiency, and the country’s proneness to natural disasters. The administration of President Rodrigo Duterte, who took office in June 2016, has pledged to step up efforts to upgrade the Philippines’ infrastructure, reform taxation, eliminate agricultural smuggling and support farmers to produce higher value-added products.

The Malaysian agriculture sector is highly focused on a few cash crops, notably oil palm and rubber. Besides the oil palm plantations industry, the Malaysian agriculture sector is quite fragmented. Leading palm oil companies are focusing on investing in biotechnology and developing high yielding variety seeds. The Malaysian government is pursuing liberalisation of the sugar industry, which will pose challenges to domestic sugar producers. With potential decline in retail price, many incumbent sugar manufacturing companies are now exploring in the international markets. With large and increasing demand for meat from livestock in Malaysia, halal food manufacturers are looking to increase production to lock in opportunities in the domestic market as well as seeking assistance from the government to expand their markets overseas.

Indonesia’s agriculture sector is highly fragmented with a large number of small players. The sector is an important source of income for large parts of the population. In addition to smallholders using traditional farming methods, there are also large-scale plantations, owned either by the state or private investors. According to Oxford Business Group, small farmers focus on horticultural commodities, while large plantations dominate palm oil, the country’s leading agricultural export. Small farms also account for about 90% of the coffee and 80% of the rubber production. Private large-scale plantations supply 59% of the palm oil output, followed by small farms whit a 34% share and state-owned plantations with 7.6%, according to Indonesia Investments.

生猪养殖因祸得福，超高超长盈利期到来。2019 年 1 季度后能繁母猪产能同比大幅下降，即使考虑到4 季度到明年1 季度产能环比小幅回升，我们预计影响2020 年生猪供给的能繁母猪存栏平均同比降幅可达30%左右，猪肉产量将进一步下降1000 万吨以上，供需矛盾加剧。参考2006-2010 年猪周期的猪价和能繁母猪存栏走势，能繁母猪存栏与猪价的底部相差5 个月，即猪价反转5 个月后行业产能开始反转，而2019 年猪价反转出现在1 月底，能繁母猪存栏触底反转却推迟到10 月底出现，相差9 个月，从该角度可以看出本轮周期的产能恢复速度明显低于以往。

近日财政部表示，“保险+期货”模式对农户管理价格风险，稳定农业生产和促进农民增收具有积极意义，有关部门高度重视“保险+期货”发展。