Aquaculture includes farming of fish, aquatic plants, algae, crustaceans, molluscs, and other organisms. Small-scale aquaculture market in developed and developing countries make critical contributions to employment. According to the FAO, aquaculture provides employment to more than over 41 million people globally. The vast majority of aquaculture activities are carried out in developing countries working in fish production. Fish and other seafood species constituting an important source of nutrients for the poor and is among the cheapest form of animal protein. As most capture fisheries worldwide considered fully exploited or overexploited, aquaculture is considered as an important sector to meet rising fish demand, which will continue to increase with population growth, rising incomes and increasing urbanization.

The global meat output was estimated at 336 million tons in 2018, which was 1.7% higher than that in 2017. The major markets driving the meat output were the US, the EU, and Russia. However, Brazil and China, which were among the major meat markets, are witnessing stagnation in recent years. The year 2018 was a very productive year for meat producers, as North America and Europe increased their productivity owing to better farm management practices, streamlined production processes, and the use of innovative technologies, including feed additives. The meat market was faced with various challenges that plagued market growth over the past few years. Some of these challenges are drought in certain parts of the world, including the US in the first half of 2019, extreme heat during summer in the EU, and throughout the year in Australia, resulting in a large number of animal slaughters.

In Africa, more than 300 million people depend on maize as their major food crop, and it is one of the most important crops in the region. Maize also serves as an important source of feed, for farm animals. The region’s maize production is constantly being affected by several challenges, such as weeds, insects, bacteria, viruses, nematodes, fungi, low-quality seeds, low levels of mechanization, sub-optimal post- harvest management, drought, and climate change. Most countries are, therefore, dependent on imports, to meet their demand. A lot of new varieties of maize are being developed. For instance, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), the Weizmann Institute of Science, the Kenya Agriculture Research Institute, and the company BASF developed a herbicide-resistant maize variety, StrigAway, which helps reduce Striga infestation in the fields. As a result, there is an increasing productivity of maize.

Ongoing advancements in the aquaculture market owing to innovative efforts have further enhanced the efficiency and productivity of the aquaculture industry. The leading categories of finfish are studied in the report as well as statistics on import and consumption of Yellowtail, Cobia, Grouper, and Pike Perch have also been analyzed. To understand the market, drivers, restraints, and opportunities are explained in the report. Further, the key strategies adopted by potential market leaders to facilitate effective planning are also discussed under the scope of the report.

上市公司进入利润加速释放阶段，且盈利周期有望超长。我们预计非瘟疫情影响长期存在，行业产能恢复缓慢，本轮周期有望迎来3-5年盈利期。目前行业已经进入高盈利阶段，预计四季度头均盈利1500-2000元。

后非瘟时代：非瘟常态化拉长了头部企业扩张的时间窗口。本轮周期本质是“以持续清退低效产能的量来换取产业链上头部公司的政策、利润、融资空间，使其在本轮较长的时间窗口内完成产业升级”。2020 年是后非瘟时代元年，生猪产业链投资逻辑由“周期”转向“成长”，产业升级是主线索，有三层面：集中度提升、单场迭代、一体化整合。建议关注温氏股份、牧原股份、新希望、双汇发展、大北农。

非洲猪瘟病毒是双链DNA病毒，有两层囊膜，一般情况下较为稳定，它耐酸、耐碱和耐低温，在活体和血液中可以长期存活，对生猪的致死率极高，当前尚无有效的疫苗，正是由于它的特殊性，对我国生猪养殖行业造成了较大的损失。

外糖流入趋稳，国内减产推动糖价延续上行。供给端，我们预计19/20 榨季国内糖产量将超预期下降，而外糖受

配额和许可证制度以及走私管制影响流入国内总量预计保持相对稳定，储备糖规模平稳，且储备糖的投放主要为缓解市场供需矛盾进而稳定市场价格，不会对糖价上涨造成较大抑制。需求端，近年来由于淀粉糖的替代作用，我国食糖的工业需求走弱，随着替代糖产能的日渐饱和，我们预计食糖需求将逐步趋稳。不考虑非正规渠道进口的情况下，我们预计19/20 榨季国内食糖供需缺口为133 万吨，缺口较上榨季进一步扩大，主要来源于国内减产。我们认为19/20 榨季国内食糖供需缺口进一步扩大将推动糖价延续周期性上涨，19 年高点看至7000 元/吨。