草地贪夜蛾是起源于美洲热带和亚热带地区的一种昆虫，喜食玉米、小麦以及水稻等80 多种作物品种。2016 年1 月在非洲首次发现，两年时间就遍及非洲44 个国家，造成了数十亿美元的损失，是典型的跨国界迁飞性农业重大害虫，目前已在近100 个国家发生。2019 年1 月首次入侵我国云南省，之后迅速蔓延至我国26 省1518 个县，其传播速度之快、波及范围之广十分罕见。我们认为，2020 年或将是草地贪夜蛾全面爆发的一年，参照美国、加拿大和南美部分国家的经验，商业化种植转基因玉米是防控草地贪夜蛾的主要手段之一，在此背景下，我国或全面放开转基因玉米市场。建议重点关注种子、农药板块。

兽药在防治动物疾病、提高养殖效益发挥重要作用，抗生素作为添加剂被广泛用于我国饲料加工中。广义上兽药指用于预防、治疗、诊断动物疾病或者有目的地调节动物生理机能的物质，包括兽用生物制品、兽用化学药品、药物饲料添加剂。狭义上的兽药指畜禽用药，一般指兽用抗菌药物、抗病毒和抗寄生虫药物等，我国批准使用的兽用抗菌药物分为抗生素和合成抗菌药物两类，用于防治动物疾病和促生长。在我国饲料中添加抗生素被广泛使用。

转基因技术是现代农业生物技术的核心组成部分。转基因技术具有加快育种进程、突破种间生殖隔离、有目的改造品种、减少环境污染等优势。据ISAAA（国际农业生物技术应用服务组织），截至2017 年底，全球共计67 个国家/地区（39 个国家/地区+欧盟28 国）的监管机构批准转基因作物用于粮食、饲料以及商业化种植。

三季度规模企业开始大量补栏（公告+草根调研双重验证），从当前母猪数据看，我们认为规模企业存在2020年出栏量大幅增长的基础。但是实际出栏量是否能够大幅提升，核心还要看能否有效防控疫情。本文主要探讨两个问题：(1)如何评估规模企业面临的疫情风险（2）影响疫情防控能力的关键因素。

The nutritional benefits of edible oil, crushed and extracted from various oilseeds, such as soybean, canola, sunflower, safflower, palms, sesame, and other oilseed crops, have led the emerging economies to witness the demonstration effect in the consumption pattern of seed-derived vegetable oil. A steady per capita consumption, rise in disposable income, and an exponential growth in population are further expected to fuel the demand for oilseed and oilseed products, including vegetable oil, in the developing countries. According to an American Heart Association (AHA) report, unsaturated fats in vegetable oil, which include monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fats, are effective in reducing cardiovascular diseases as opposed to the intake of saturated and trans fat. Thereby, the benefits of vegetables oil strengthen the oilseed market in the developing countries.

The push for healthy living is the primary factor poised to drive the demand for health ingredients, like blueberries. Consumers today, prefer nutritional food to enhance overall health and wellbeing. Blueberries are also known for preventing cancer, as they contain vitamin C and vitamin A. Moreover, the various phytonutrients in blueberries function as powerful antioxidants that may help protect cells against damage from disease-linked free radicals. Thus, food and beverage manufacturers are increasingly incorporating healthy ingredients, like blueberry, in the form of powder, pieces in on-the-go snacks. However, increasing demand for snacks made using real fruits and vegetables is on the rise. Thus products, like blueberry fruit-based snacks, are gaining popularity among consumers across the world.

生猪养殖方面，非洲猪瘟疫情加速生猪产能去化，生猪供给不足支撑猪价屡创历史新高，考虑到市场上暂无有效疫苗，中小养殖户复养情绪谨慎，周期有望拉长，龙头企业市占率提升逻辑加速演绎，建议把握龙头企业高成长投资机会。禽养殖方面，猪鸡替代效应强劲，带动禽链高景气，上市公司利润有望快速释放。疫苗方面，看好非洲猪瘟疫苗上市，贡献行业增量空间，龙头企业率先获益。 

海大集团中短期的看点在于业绩的持续向好，2019Q2Q3是业绩低谷期；而业绩增长的矛盾点在水产料周期（以2018年业绩为例，总利润14亿，水产料贡献业绩9亿，占比64%；2019年水产料行情差，预计总利润17亿，水产料8.8亿，占比超50%）

2020 年生猪养殖行业仍为投资首选，其次为禽养殖和动保行业。周期与成长共振将在生猪养殖板块进一步演绎，而白鸡亦将受益于需求端的提振而保持较高景气，后周期动保板块有望逐步回暖。