国内，2019/2020年度我国小麦期末库存较2014/2015年增长0.86亿吨至1.5亿吨，库消比由56%上升至120%，预计2020/2021年度我国小麦期末库存将上涨至1.63亿吨，库消比高达125%。国际，20/21 年度预计全球小麦产量7.66亿吨，同比小幅增产；预计期末库存为3.17亿吨，期末库存消费比为42.4%，连续8年增长。剔除中国后， 20/21 年度全球小麦预期库存1.54亿吨，库存消费比24.97%，整体小幅上升。库存充足背景下，国内、国际小麦价格均不具备大幅上涨基础。

农业板块跑赢大盘。1）本期沪深300 指数上涨0.27%，农业板块上涨2.64%，在28 个子行业中排名第7 位；2）本周养猪板块分化，受月度出栏放量催化正邦科技、新希望上涨且超额收益为正，其余标的下跌；养鸡板块立华股份、湘佳股份、华英农业上涨；饲料板块景气回升，仅金新农下跌，海大集团、大北农、禾丰牧业获正超额收益；动保板块仅生物股份获正超额收益；种植板块仅众兴菌业下跌，其余标的超额收益为正；种子板块除*ST 敦种外均获得大幅超额收益。

Beans are the most common name for the large seed variety of Fabaceae family. The global dry beans market is growing at robust growth rate, owing to the increasing awareness about its health benefits. Dry edible beans have a variety of market classes, including kidney bean, navy bean, pinto bean, and black bean. The production of dry beans is majorly affected by several factors, such as environmental hazards, bio stress, and government policies of the country. Beans are subject to several bacterial and viral diseases as well, particularly in years of high temperature, high humidity, and heavy rainfall. These unfavorable climatic conditions, along with diseases and pest infestation, often take a heavy toll on the yield of dry beans. Top global dry bean producers are Myanmar, India, Brazil, China, Mexico, Tanzania, the United States, Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda. Major importers are generally India, China, Bangladesh, the United States and Egypt. Production costs for dry beans are usually on the higher side. Extra costs on dry beans can include higher seed cost, and the need of sprays for insects or pests are more, as compared to other leguminous crops. Apart from these costs, extra labor during harvest adds to the expense, especially in regions with labor shortage.

本周全国生猪价格上涨；根据博亚和讯数据，本周生猪均价 37.57 元 /kg，环比上升 1.32%，本周仔猪均价 121.42 元/kg（15kg 体重）。预 计 8 月生猪价格整体高位震荡，三季度猪价涨价动力充足，仍处于历史 上较高水平，南方雨季疫情扰动性强，洪水可能将周边埋葬的病死畜禽 尸体冲走，其携带的病原微生物暴露于空气中，可能会导致病原微生物 传播，引发疫病，其次关注北方四季度疫情情况。