2020 年12 月份中信基础化工行业指数上涨1.90%，在30 个中信一级行业中排名第9 位。子行业中，碳纤维、锂电化学品和聚氨酯板块表现居前。主要产品中，近一月份化工品整体保持上涨态势，但上涨品种比例有所下降，下跌品种比例有所提升。上涨品种中，制冷剂R125、二甲基亚酰胺、碳酸锂、丙二醇和四氯乙烯涨幅居前。1 月份的投资策略上，建议关注制冷剂和化纤板块。

2021 年初以来，化工行业整体景气度明显提升，截至1 月18 日收盘，CS 石油石化指数单日上涨3.69%，年初至今上涨11.66%，在中信29 个一级行业中涨跌幅排名第一；CS 基础化工指数单日上涨2.46%，年初至今上涨6.01%，在中信29 个一级行业中涨跌幅排名第六。整体来看，我们认为2020Q3-2021Q1 是新一轮周期的起点，未来上市化企利润水平将持续企稳回升，预计在2021Q3-Q4 达到新一轮利润高点。从子板块来看，化工行业本次涨潮中可降解塑料、电子化学品以及以民营炼化为首的化纤三个子板块表现最为亮眼，其中电子化学品板块主要是板块补涨逻辑。

2020 年初至今国内外主要粮食作物价格上涨明显，国内玉米、大豆、小麦、中晚稻等主要粮食作物价格分别上涨45%/29%/3.5%/14%；CBOT 玉米、大豆和小麦等农作物期货结算价分别上涨27%/42%/15%。根据中金农业组预测，2021 年国内玉米饲用需求旺盛，玉米价格与种植收益仍将处于向上通道；同时小麦与水稻价格或受益于政策推动，水稻和小麦收储价格仍有向上空间。我们认为农作物价格上涨将带动种植收益提升和农民种植意愿增强，利好化肥等农业投入品需求增长，我们看好春耕旺季需求集中释放下化肥价格上涨。

展望2021 年，我们对农化行业预期乐观，我们判断农药企业将进入新一轮量价齐升景气周期。若通胀推动农作物价格持续上行，我们认为本轮周期有望重现2013-2014 年农化大周期。考虑到2021 年重点复苏的是大田作物相关需求，我们认为应当优先关注除草剂、杀虫剂，尤其是大宗品种草甘膦、草铵膦、农用菊酯等品种。

Hand cream is one of the types of skin care products that is specifically meant to provide moisture to hands. Hand cream provides moisture to hands for a longer period of time than a hand lotion owing to its thick consistency. There are different variants of hand cream available in the market that include anti-aging hand cream, whitening hand cream, overnight hand cream, repair hand cream and others.

Bunker fuel is a fuel oil used in marine vessels. It is poured into the ship bunkers to power its engines. Ships use mainly three types of marine fuels, which include high sulfur fuel oil, low sulfur fuel oil, and diesel oil. Nowadays, growth in awareness toward reducing environmental pollution and stringent government regulations are expected to create opportunities for the fuels, including LNG, gasoil, LPG, and others as a substitute to the above-mentioned bunker fuels.

2020 年以来，受疫情、异常天气、及去库存等方面影响，农产品供给趋紧，主粮价格回暖。农作物价格的高低很大程度上影响化肥的价格和施用量。化肥与主粮价格走势高度正相关，价格复苏有一定滞后。

12 月社零总额4.06 万亿元，同比名义增长4.6%，增速环比11 月的+5.0%回落0.4ppt，略弱于我们预期，主要受疫情反复及“双十一”虹吸效应等影响。2020 全年社零39.2 万亿元，同比-3.9%，其中Q4 同比+4.6%，环比Q3 提速3.7ppt，呈改善趋势。提示关注短期疫情波动对零售行业冲击，仍维持2021 年消费数据前高后低走势的判断。近期国内多地疫情有所反复，临近春节，提示关注疫情对春节促销旺季消费数据的可能冲击，同时看好线上消费渗透率进一步提升趋势。

Bioplastic is a sustainable material derived from renewable feedstocks. It has the potential to reduce 30-70% of carbon dioxide emission. It represents approximately 42% reduction of carbon footprints. The production of bioplastic requires 65% less energy than conventional petroleum plastic. The global bioplastics market is evolving, and companies are now focusing more on strengthening and consolidating R&D activities; thereby, increasing production capacity. The adoption of bioplastic has increased tremendously across various applications, owing to the advanced technical properties and functionalities.

Biodegradable engine oils, also known as bio-lubricants and bio-lubes, are biodegradable and nontoxic lubricants. Organic lubricants are usually made by using raw materials such as rapeseed oil, sunflower oil, palm oil, coconut oil, and animal fats. In terms of non-toxicity, sustainability, carbon neutral, and environmentally safe, bio-lubricants provide many advantages over conventionally used petroleum-based product offerings. Attributed to the high flash point and high stability, the use of bio-lubricants over traditional lubricants is comparatively better. Bio-lubricants are used for a variety of applications across a diverse set of industries, including automotive, marine, construction, and others.