据国家发展改革委预测，今年迎峰度夏期间煤电油气运供需总体平稳，但地区性、时段性供需偏紧情况仍然存在。

前言：投资、消费和净出口是宏观经济发展“三驾马车”，对于企业发展，我们认为持续的投资能力也是公司不断发展壮大不可或缺的部分，特别是“三降一去一补”、环保高压常态化，已从“量的去化”走向“量的优化”背景下，投资能力反映了公司资金实力、环保护城河，本文试从资本开支角度探讨挖掘化工成长性周期龙头股。同样适用其它中游制造行业参考。7月23日国务院常务会议传递积极信号，极大催化周期股信心。

In 2017, the oil and gas extraction index rebounded from the slump in 2016. The country’s natural gas production increased in volume terms by 7.3% y/y in 2017, whereas crude oil output volumes were reduced by 5.8% y/y. Value wise, the production of crude oil and natural gas surged cumulatively by 13% y/y to RON 12.9bn on the price increase of energy commodities on the global markets. In 2016, natural gas producers in Romania scaled back output volumes due to intensified competition from imported gas as import prices fell below domestic gas prices. However, in 2017, the oversupply condition on the European gas markets eased, prices rose and the Romanian companies ramped up production volumes again.

LPG market has been broadly segmented into three categories including source, application, and region. On the basis of source, LPG can be segmented into refinery, associated gas, and non-associated gas. On the basis of application, LPG has been segmented into residential/commercial, chemical, industrial, auto fuel, and refinery.

Wave & tidal energy market has been segmented based on type and region. Based on type, the market has been segmented into wave energy and tidal energy. Based on region, the market has been segmented into North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The market is segmented on a regional level based on installed capacity (MW) and revenue (USD Million) with 2016 as the base year and forecast period of 8 years from 2017 to 2025.

本周 PTA 价格环比上涨 2.06%至 6,103元/吨，价差则环比上涨 5.87%至 714 元/吨。首先，近期涤纶长丝的开工率持续提升，短纤、瓶片等产品开工负荷也在向上，终端聚酯整体需求较旺。从供给端来看，本周利万聚酯和汉邦石化 PTA 装置均已复产，开工率环比提升1.50pct 至 74.30%，不过整体而言，PTA 供应依旧偏紧，使得其本周库存继续下降，目前已跌至 82.5 万吨，创近 3 年半以来新低。另外近期市场信心也在不断提振，资金面存在较强支撑。综合作用下，近期 PTA 走出较好行情。

过去 5 年，年均增速为 GDP 的 1.8 倍：丙烯是三大合成材料（塑料、橡胶和化纤）的基本原料，主要用于生产聚丙烯、环氧丙烷、丙烯腈、异丙苯、丙烯酸、丁辛醇等下游衍生物，在汽车、电子电器、建筑、医疗卫生等领域具有广泛的应用。丙烯需求量增长和 GDP增长有很好的一致性，近年中国丙烯消费增长和 GDP 的倍数呈现出逐年增加的趋势，过去五年的平均倍数在 1.8 倍左右。

2018 年上半年行业基本面的演进总结为：1）国际油价超市场预期；2）天然气市场紧张程度进一步超预期；3）炼油盈利高位，乙烯低成本冲击显现； 4）油服需求回暖，但盈利启动迟缓。上半年，石油化工行业整体 ROE 水平继续上行。

Russia’s oil and gas subsector remained more effective in comparison with other industries and sectors by ROA in 2017. (ROA ratio calculated by the Federal Statistics Service is based on earnings before tax). Meanwhile, ROA of oil refining sector fell to 0.3% in Q4 2017 in comparison with Russia’s average of 2.2%.

6 月 28 日，国家发改委、商务部联合发布了《外商投资准入特别管理措施（负面清单）（2018 年版）》。发布清单中正式取消同一外国投资者设立超过30 家分店。销售来自多个供应商的不同种类和品牌成品油的连锁加油站建设。经营须由中方控股的限制，这意味着届时我国成品油终端市场将全面向外资放开。