We believe South East Asia's mining sector will struggle to fulfil its potential over the next few years, despite rich deposits of untapped minerals on offer. China's economic slowdown will remove a crucial outlet for raw material exports in the region and, more importantly, will impact the profitability of mining ventures, with high start-up costs likely to deter new investment. While states such as Myanmar have made strides to relax the regulatory environment to encourage increased private sector investment, substantial obstacles remain across many parts of the region, including high levels of corruption and limited infrastructure. As such, many parts of the region continue to be perceived as frontier markets as far as mining activity is concerned.

根据 OPEC2019 年 4 月报，假设 OPEC 产量保持 2019 年 1 季度不变，OPEC 预计 2019 年 2-3 季度全球原油库存下降，4 季度库存上升；根据 IEA 最新 2019 年 3月报，假设 OPEC 产量保持 2018 年 4 季度不变，IEA 预计 2019 年全年全球原油持续累库存。根据 EIA2019 年 4 月短期能源展望报告，EIA 预计 2019 年 1 季度全球原油库存下降，从 2 季度开始库存上升。

2019 年 3 月，产地煤矿复工复产速度加快，煤炭产量稳定增加，全国煤炭产量 29835 万吨，同比增长 2.7%。同时，南方水力出电增速较快对火力出电造成一定程度上的挤压，加之火电厂煤炭库存偏高，煤炭市场交易活跃度降低，3 月全国煤炭销量为27300 万吨，同比减少 0.81%。煤炭价格面临季节性调整，3 月中旬起市场价格纷纷下滑。

港口煤价小幅下跌：截至4 月24 日，港口方面，秦皇岛港山西产动力末煤(Q5500)平仓价614.0元/吨，较上周下跌8.0 元/吨。动力煤价格指数(RMB):CCI 5500(含税) 619.0 元/吨，较上周下跌8.0 元/吨。产地方面，山西大同南郊弱粘煤444.0 元/吨，较上周上涨7.0 元/吨；内蒙古鄂尔多斯东胜大块精煤410.0 元/吨，较上周上涨4.0 元/吨。国际煤价，纽卡斯尔港动力煤现货价89.16 美元/吨，较上周下跌0.69 美元/吨。截止4 月24 日动力煤主力合约期货贴水9.6 元

/吨。