4 月以来（3 月31 日-5 月6 日）上证综指下跌6.0%，沪深300 下跌4.8%，煤炭板块下跌4.1%。5 月我们预计动力煤需求承压，焦煤需求向好：动力煤：近期随着天气转暖，动力煤需求步入传统淡季，根据煤炭资源网数据，4 月以来六大电厂日耗平均为62.3万吨，同比下滑7.2%，环比下滑5.9%，我们预计后期动力煤需求承压，然而目前港口可交易的库存较低，一定程度上支撑动力煤需求，迎峰度夏补库将在5 月底或6 月初开始；炼焦煤方面，5 月是钢材等下游的旺季，随着钢焦产业链产品价格的持续提升和盈利的逐步改善，钢焦企业复产不断增加，预计下游补库需求将逐步释放。2）供给方面，陕蒙地区煤管票管控较严，产地供给紧张。近期陕西地区复产煤矿有所增加，但是受煤管票及检修原因生产状态不稳定，整体供应偏紧。

18 年至今，在长协占比不断提升的大环境下，煤炭价格整体维持平稳波动，煤炭板块盈利整体保持小幅稳增长模式，18 年营收9974.23 亿元，增速9.32%，低于全部A 股2.16pct；净利润949.86 亿元，增速5.48%，同期全部A 股净利

增速-1.90%；毛利率下降0.32pct 至31.15%，好于市场11.26pct;净利率下降0.17pct 至11.96%，好于市场3.80pct;ROE11.83%,比全部A 股高2.08pct。19年一季度，煤价保持区间波动，煤炭板块延续18 年走势，营收净利稳步增长，19 年Q1 营收2509.55 亿元，增速9.32%，低于全部A 股1.62pct；净利润274.97亿元，增速4.19%，一季度全部A 股净利增速表现良好，高于煤炭板块5.20pct；毛利率下降2.59pct 至28.99%，好于市场9.42pct;净利率下降0.92pct 至13.34%，好于市场3.48pct;ROE3.21%,比全部A 股高0.40pct。

We believe South East Asia's mining sector will struggle to fulfil its potential over the next few years, despite rich deposits of untapped minerals on offer. China's economic slowdown will remove a crucial outlet for raw material exports in the region and, more importantly, will impact the profitability of mining ventures, with high start-up costs likely to deter new investment. While states such as Myanmar have made strides to relax the regulatory environment to encourage increased private sector investment, substantial obstacles remain across many parts of the region, including high levels of corruption and limited infrastructure. As such, many parts of the region continue to be perceived as frontier markets as far as mining activity is concerned.