虫害对全球和我国农业生产造成极大危害，而2020 年尤为虫害大年，沙漠飞蝗+草地贪夜蛾肆虐。本文详细复盘本次沙漠飞蝗、草地贪夜蛾灾情，展望虫害对印度、巴基斯坦、中国主要作物生产的影响；并剖析农药板块（杀虫剂行业）的行业空间、竞争格局，寻找虫害肆虐下杀虫剂行业龙头公司的机遇。

随着生猪养殖产能逐步复苏，2020Q4开始行业将进入周期下行通道，但在非瘟导致补栏进度缓慢的背景下，猪、鸡价格跌势或较为平缓，下行周期将被拉长。我们认为，下行周期中板块性机会难寻，投资上建议更偏向自下而上寻找具备长期成长性的标的。

市场行情回顾：5月份，农林牧渔（申万）指数下跌3.72%，跑输沪深300、创业板指、中小板指数2.64、5.73、3.03 个百分点，在申万28个一级行业指数中排名第25 位。截止2020 年5 月底，农林牧渔板块PE（TTM，整体法）均值为18.69 倍，相对A 股溢价为1.22 倍。

2020-2021 年猪价或将高位运行，上市猪企经营状况明显分化。中线看，非瘟 疫情造成种猪产业链重创，二元母猪断档三元补，而三元留种又造成生产效率 大降，我们维持 2020-2021 年猪价高位运行的判断不变。短期看，大猪占比明 显回落，国储冻肉投放频次放缓，复学、复工带来需求缓慢恢复，对猪价构成 利好，北京新冠疫情后续影响需紧密跟踪。在非瘟疫情长期存在的大背景下， 普通养殖户在种猪资源、资金支持、生物安全防控等方面均处于劣势，规模养 殖场尤其是大型集团公司集中度正加速提升。今年 5 月，上市猪企均实现出栏 量环比正增长，但出栏量同比增速、头均净利明显分化，我们将密切跟踪各上 市猪企逐季改善情况，继续看好主流猪企投资机会。

The agriculture sector plays a vital role in the development of the economy. The sector has already contributed toward economic prosperity of developed countries such as the US, the UK, and Japan. In all these developed economies, the agriculture revolution has preceded the industrial revolution. Currently, developing countries such as India, China, and the Sub-Saharan African region, where the per capita income is low, the emphasis is laid on developing a strong agriculture sector. The contribution of the secondary and tertiary sector to the GDP of economies is always high, however, to sustain the economic growth, the significant contribution also must come from a primary sector of the economy i.e. agriculture. The growth of both these sectors is not supplementary but complementary.农业生态系统 The world population is set to reach 9.8 billion by 2050 from the present 7.6 billion. The growth is largely driven by a rapid rise in population in Africa and Asia. This not only implies that the existing agricultural ecosystem should gear up to feed the additional 2.2 billion but also should accommodate their shift in dietary patterns and account for the shrinkage in acreage. An increased reliance on the protein-rich diet, which comprise meat products, places an additional demand for grain. Urbanization and deforestation are resulting in climatic shifts that are severely affecting agricultural yields. Therefore, there is an urgent need for smart solutions that can effectively help to mitigate the negative effect on agriculture and meet the rising demand for food across the world.

生猪出栏量：5 月份，上市猪企均实现了生猪出栏量增长，牧原股份、温氏股份、正邦科技、新希望、天邦股份、大北农、傲农生物、天康生物、唐人神、金新农，分别出栏144.70、90.06、49.62、49.31、19.13、13.43、10.13、8.71、5.27、4.39 万头，环比分别增长16.04%、4.21%、1.92%、58.86%、9.45%、28.89%、16.13%、12.10%、1.35%、123.30%，金新农、新希望、大北农增速相对领先。