2019 年上半年，原油反弹，布伦特和 WTI 分别比去年底反弹 23%、27%。然而主要成品油和主要化工品价格表现较弱，大部分下跌，尤其是乙烯跌幅大。一体化和炼化上市公司盈利水平以 ROE 衡量，Q1 虽环比 18Q4 好转（因18Q4 跌价损失影响大），但相比 18Q3 的高点已经有所下行。 

2018年5月开始美国宣布拟对伊朗实施制裁，2019年1月美国宣布不再向委内瑞拉出售石脑油，并禁止使用美国金融服务体系购买其原油；4月22日美国政府宣布在5月2日之后，将不再允许进口伊朗原油或凝析油的国家获得制裁豁免。

Brent原油上涨35%、WTI原油上涨41%，主要受供给侧驱动，影响因素包括OPEC超预期减产、地缘政治紧张局势（利比亚战事、美国制裁伊朗）等 。

The world economy is expected to underpin a solid increase in oil demand. Strong economies are anticipated to consume more oil, and the demand is expected to grow at an average of 1.2 mb/d per year during 2018-2023, oil demand reaching 104.7 mb/d, up by 6.9 mb/d from 2018. India and China, together, are expected to contribute around 50% of the global oil demand by 2023. During the period of downturn, capital budgets were remarkable lower than pre- 2014 level. Many of the integrated oil and gas companies and state-owned firms shifted their focus toward efficiency and adopting best practices.

Fuel cells are currently one of the most efficient technologies that converts fuel to electricity. Fuel cells are used in a wide range of applications, including transport and emergency backup power applications. Typically, a conventional combustion-based power plant generates electricity at efficiencies of 33% to 35%, while fuel cells can generate electricity at efficiencies up to 60% and even higher with co-generation. Fuel cells are expected to be a major driver of distributed power, allowing homes and businesses to generate/produce their energy efficiently, as, and when, required.

2017-2018年，在OPEC减产、伊朗出口下降等因素推动下，原油供需改善，库存回至五年均值，原油季度均价稳健上行，2018年布油均价达到71美元/桶。

进入 6 月份，油价先抑后扬。特别是 6 月 20 日，受中东地缘政治紧张局势（伊朗击落一架美国军用无人机）、美联储显示将要降息等因素影响，Brent 油价单日上涨达到 4.3%。考虑到原油均价仍处在中位，对行业而言虽不是最优价格，但是一个相对比较舒适的价格区间。 

上半年国际油价再现 2018年下半年走势，1-4 月国际油价震荡上行，涨幅显著，5-6 月国际油价宽幅下跌。上半年 OPEC 主被动减产力度较强，供给端超预期收缩支撑一季度原油价格上行，但贸易纷争持续，需求疲弱，导致二季度油价大幅下行。 

民营大炼化的崛起让石化行业看到了民营企业家的风采，然而，作为挑战者，进入到炼油炼化这个长期国有企业垄断的行业必定意味艰难险阻不可或缺——与长丝行业充分竞争的市场格局不同。