钢铁后工业化时代，供给研究重要性凸显。综合考虑国内外的人均钢铁消费量、钢铁积蓄总量以及钢铁产量的变化趋势，我们判断中国钢铁业的工业化已在2014 年达到峰值；参考美日等发达国家的经验，意味着国内钢铁需求将可能面临长达十年的下降；再考虑到国家层面的供给侧改革、去杠杆、蓝天保卫战同时发力，这些都凸显了供给研究的重要性，钢铁业亟需一套基于逻辑推理和数据验证的供给研究框架。

本报告基于历史的框架性分析，认为钢铁行业本轮超额收益主要来自于供给端与成本端。在产能未大量新增的背景下，行业基本面景气维持甚至有望延续改善。重点关注2018 年下半年旺季行情。维持行业“推荐”评级。

发达国家粗钢见顶10年后产量下降30%（日韩台湾省除外）。发达国家过去20年粗钢保持不变更多受益中国和东南亚。我们预计我国钢产量将进入产量下降期。

6 月Myspic 钢材价格指数上涨0.37%。Myspic 长材和扁平材价格指数月涨跌幅分别为0.89%和-0.23%。6 月29 日，螺纹期货主力合约收盘价3807 元/吨，月涨跌幅3.0%；螺纹现货4060 元/吨，月涨跌幅2.3%。热卷期货主力合约收盘3926 元/吨，月涨跌幅0.6%；热卷现货4230 元/吨，月涨幅-0.5%。

6 月，川财金属材料指数下跌6.60%，沪深300 下跌7.66%。本月钢铁版块先涨后跌，上半月钢材库存去化情况理想打消市场对钢铁需求端担忧，版块涨幅较大；下半月中美贸易战出现反复叠加棚改政策变化促使市场情绪出现波动，版块出现回调。我们对钢铁供需仍维持乐观预期。需求方面，虽然今年基建下滑明显，但是房企加速三四线城市土地开工和建设支撑建筑钢材需求，整体而言钢材需求仍然坚挺。供给方面，环保高压趋势延续，近日公布的“唐山钢铁、焦化超低排放改造通知”及“打赢蓝天保卫战三年行动计划”或将进一步限制高炉生产，粗钢供给有望收缩。

Metal processing is an important supplier for the rapidly growing Indian economy. Sectors such as construction, infrastructure, electricity generation, automotive manufacturing and ICT all benefit from cheap domestic metal and metal products production. Metal products accounted for around 2% of national gross value added (GVA) in FY2017, 9.3% of total exports and 11% of imports.

钢铁下游需求主要来自于建筑（包括地产和基建）、机械、汽车等。根据2017 年冶金工业规划研究院发布的钢材存量结构计算，建筑、机械、汽车等这三类终端占比分别达53%、19%和8%，合计达80%，其中以房地产、基建为代表的建筑领域是主要的钢需终端、最主要的弹性来源。通常我们以房地产开发投资增速（辅之以新开工面积、房地产销售面积等指标）作为房地产钢需的跟踪指标，以基础设施建设投资增速来反应基建钢需，以制造业固定资产投资增速来跟踪机械等制造业领域的钢需状况，2013~2017 年房地产开发、基础设施建设和制造业投资占固定资产投资比重达75%左右，因此采用固定资产投资作为反应钢需总量指标具有指导意义。

临时限产+常态化机制相结合：近期常州、徐州等地日趋严厉的环保限产政策以及相关政府部门对10省（区）的环保督察再次引起行业关注。上半年以唐山为代表的错峰生产方案业已标志着我国对敏感区域已经建立了常态化环保限产机制，而特定时段、特定地区的临时性限产后面或许也会更加频繁，我们预计下半年尤其是采暖季环保限产仍然成为扰动行业供给的最重要因素。

The metallic stearates are defined as the metal salts of an 18-carbon chain fatty acid stearic acid. The global metallic stearates market has been segmented based on product, application, and region. In terms of product, the market has been categorized into five major segments, including zinc stearate, calcium stearate, aluminum stearate, magnesium stearate, and others. Zinc stearate is produced using Zn-salts such as ZnO, ZnCl2, and ZnSO4. Oxides, hydroxides, sulfate, and chloride salts of aluminum, magnesium, and calcium react with stearic acid to produce the respective salts. The others product scope includes nickel stearate, copper stearate, lithium stearate, and sodium stearate.

The Indian steel industry contributes around 2% of the country GDP and employs some 500,000 people directly and about 2mn indirectly. The Indian government sees the steel sector as strategically important and as a foundation for rapid industrial development. According to the Ministry of Steel, the steel industry has an output multiplier effect of nearly 1.4 on GDP, and an employment multiplier factor of 6.8. The sector has taken advantage of the country’s abundance of iron ore reserves, its cheap but qualified labour force, and government support policies. As a result, India is close to becoming the second-largest crude steel producer after China, outpacing Japan. In FY2017, India became a net exporter of iron and steel, in both volume and value terms, as local companies ramped up production.