盈利拐点已现，供需优化助推复苏。1H25，53家样本公司合计实现归母净利润401亿元，同比+36%，2Q25实现归母净利215亿元，同比+21%，环比+16%，业绩复苏。电池、负极及结构件盈利稳健，正极迎来修复。行业整体资本开支持续收缩，供给扩张趋于理性，库存周转效率提升，叠加Q3排产环比增长（预计电 池/正极等环节环比+6%~10%），供需结构优化将助推盈利持续回升，建议关注电池与材料环节领先企业。

新能源板块分化明显，风电表现亮眼。2025H1新能源板块实现收入7297亿元，同减3%，实现归母净利润110亿元，同减46%；2025Q2收入4115亿元，同比0%，环增29%，归母净利润60亿元，同降8%，环增23%。其中光伏板块2025H1营收4348亿元，同减14%，归母净利润 -71亿元，同减276%；2025Q2营收2396亿元，同减12%，环增23%，归母净利润-36亿元，同减48%，环减2%。风电板块2025H1营收1558亿元，同减32%，归母净利润91亿元，同增20%；2025Q2营收945亿元，同增34%，环增54%，归母净利润55亿元，同增21%，环增52%。

The global virtual power plant market was sized near USD 1,852.9 million in 2023 in terms of value. A Virtual Power Plant (VPP) is an advanced energy management system that aggregates, optimizes, and controls distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar panels, wind turbines, battery storage systems, and demand-response units. The Virtual Power Plant (VPP) market is witnessing unique trends, including the integration of blockchain-based peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading, and AI-driven predictive analytics for dynamic load balancing. Additionally, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology is gaining traction, allowing electric vehicles to contribute to grid stability and energy trading. Leading players in the market include Schneider Electric, Tesla, ABB, Siemens, and others. Companies in the Virtual Power Plant (VPP) market are adopting strategic partnerships, AI-driven energy management, and decentralized grid solutions to enhance efficiency. They are also investing in demand response programs, blockchain-based energy trading, and advanced energy storage integration to optimize distributed energy resources and strengthen grid resilience in real-time. The Virtual Power Plant (VPP) market faces challenges such as real-time energy forecasting inaccuracies, and data ownership disputes among energy providers. These may be resolved by enhancing AI-driven predictive analytics for accurate demand-supply forecasting, implementing clear regulatory frameworks, and establishing transparent data-sharing agreements to ensure seamless operations

The market by value in this report is defined as the revenues that enterprises gain from goods and/or services sold within the specified market and geography. • Values in this market are ‘factory gate’ values, that is the value of goods sold by the manufacturers or creators of the goods, whether to other entities (including downstream manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors and retailers) or directly to end customers. The value of goods in this market includes related services sold by the creators of the goods

锂电：先惠技术与清陶能源深化合作，共促固态电池发展。富临精工经营端符合预期，正极材料盈利有望持续提升。当升科技业绩环比高增。湖南裕能 Q2 环比高增。锂电 产业链 25 年有望出现供需拐点，行业进入 2-3 年上行周期。展望未来两年，业绩、估值均有提升可能性，属于中线布局较好板块。推荐【宁德时代】【亿纬锂能】；材料建议关注【湖南裕能】【万润新能】【尚太科技】【中科电气】；看好锂电新技术方向固态电池的主题行情，建议关注固态电池相关公司【厦钨新能】【宏工科技】【纳科若尔】【国轩高科】【星源材质】【容百科技】。

公用环保行业：火电盈利提升，环保现金流延续改善－专题研究

公用事业行业：AI带动数据中心景气向上，电力需求有多少

本周（9.1-9.5）上证综指下降 1.18%，创业板指上涨 2.35%。碳中和板块下降 1.42%，公用事业板块上涨 1.16%， 环保板块上涨 0.23%，煤炭板块上涨 0.66%。

光伏：硅料价格延续小幅上行，下游价格持稳，市场观望氛围不减 本周硅料价格继续小幅上探，N 型颗粒硅料涨幅相对突出。硅片、电池 片及组件价格延续平盘走势，整体维持稳定。产业链观望情绪未改， 市场整体仍处于弱平衡状态。建议关注 BC 产业趋势。

固态电池产业化加速推进：材料端，格林美与蔚蓝锂芯签署固态电池材料合作协议，双方计划在一年内实现超高比能电池技术突破，三年内推动全固态电池等400Wh/Kg以上超高比能锂 电池的产业化。电池端，南都电源签署2.8GWh独立储能项目订单，该项目将采用314Ah半固态电池；太蓝新能源固态电池项目入选国家重点研发计划；融捷能源发布450Wh/kg全固态 电池，并计划2026年建成0.2GWh中试线。政策端，《电动汽车用全固态电池单体规格尺寸》团体标准正式立项；该标准主要规范了全固态电池单体的封装方式、规格尺寸和公差等关键 指标。其中，全固态电池单体封装方式规定使用软包三封边封装方式。