25 年初以来地产等需求呈现企稳态势，家电产量、汽车销量等数据保持增长。我们认为，伴随 2025 年以来行业资本开支增速显著下降，叠加“反内卷”有望助力供给端协同及落后产能出清，而内需有望进一步复苏及出口亚 非拉等支撑需求，大宗化工品有望逐步复苏。油价长期存在成本底部支撑， 具备增产降本能力及天然气增量的高分红企业具有配置机遇，推荐中国石油（A/H）；大宗化工方面，关注制冷剂、异氰酸酯等格局率先优化品种，以及有机硅/农药/PVA 等供需面有望改善并带来涨价弹性的品种，推荐巨化股 份/鲁西化工/华鲁恒升/皖维高新；下游制品/精细品方面，食饲药添加剂行业 Q4 需求旺季到来，以及原料成本改善助力盈利修复，推荐梅花生物/新和成； 出口方面，国内化工品具备成本优势和性价比，国内轮胎依托性价比优势仍有望持续提升全球份额，推荐森麒麟/赛轮轮胎；高股息资产方面，伴随资本开支下降等，主动分红意愿和能力或提升，磷资源有望维持至少 3 年高景气，推荐云天化/中海石油化学。

美容护理行业：胶原蛋白，技术支撑下的产业链协同与医美应用新趋势

202 年上半年，农药市场总体仍然处于供大于求的局面，行业竞争激烈，但农药库存逐步回归正常水平，部分产品价格出现回暖迹象，给行业发展带来了一定积极影响；烯草酮、百菌清、毒死蜱、阿维菌素、甲氨基阿维菌素苯甲酸盐等十几 个品种出现不同程度的涨价。整体来看国内农药价格目前仍处于历史低点，但部分品种已经出现止跌回升迹象。截至 2025 年 10 月 19 日，中农立华原药价格指 数报 74.73 点，同比下跌 0.07 点，跌幅 0.09%；除草剂原药价格指数报 85.79 点， 同比上涨 3.42%。

Caustic soda, also known as sodium hydroxide, is an odorless, highly corrosive, nonflammable white solid. It is generally produced as flakes or shiny pellets that create a slippery solution because it is highly water￾soluble. A 50% concentration of caustic soda is slightly viscous in nature. It is widely used as a general￾purpose industrial as well as commercial chemical in several process industries.

Fabric conditioners are cationic surfactants that contain fragrances (natural/artificial), coloring agents, and preservatives such as bronopol, formaldehyde, and chloride. They make the clothes soft and give long-lasting fragrance to garments. Fabric conditioners also make the cloth less static, easy to iron and maintain the shape of the garment for longer. Economic development is contributing to greater purchasing power and awareness about fabric conditioners in developing regions. The growing level of urbanization and the introduction of new products and technologies are some other factors driving the market.

Packaging resins are plastic materials used in the production of packaging solutions, offering durability, flexibility, and protection for various products. Common types include polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), and polyethylene terephthalate (PET), which are widely used in industries such as food and beverages, healthcare, and consumer goods. These resins provide moisture resistance, strength, and lightweight properties, making them essential for both rigid and flexible packaging applications.

Lithium carbonate is a lithium salt of carbonate consisting of lithium, carbon, and oxygen elements. Lithium carbonate is a white, crystalline powder that is commonly used in industrial applications, with its primary significance in the field of energy storage, particularly in the production of lithium-ion batteries.

A K-12 makerspace is a place in K-12 schools that allow students to create, tinker, invent, discover, and explore new ideas using a varied range of materials. These materials are referred to as K-12 makerspace materials. Some of these materials are 3D printers, computers, cameras, electronic tools, building materials, and art and craft supplies.

基础化工行业：长风已来，借风之势，乘风而起－深度报告

基础化工行业：关注三季报超预期板块，电子气体存储景气度高