态势。2017 年以来全球煤炭需求同步步入上升期，产能出清叠加下行期投资严重不足，供给相对增量有限，供需错配推动国际煤价逐步上扬，尤其今年以来趋势较国内更为明显。未来全球将迎来新一轮火电装机窗口期，边际拉动上，印度、印尼、日本以及

“一带一路”国家巴基斯坦等需求拉动力逐步增强。

今年以来煤炭供应偏紧，产量对需求变化的适应能力不足，供给缺乏弹性。是造成煤价大起大落的原因之一，安监环保趋严且常态化加重了供应偏紧。进口管制较严，对需求变化同样弹性不足，有待放松。预计2018年煤炭产量同比增加1.2 亿吨或3.6%至35.7 亿吨。我们认为进一步增加供给以及增加其对需求变化的弹性是有必要的。

今年以来煤炭供需超预期，一方面受制于安监环保较严的力度，在建矿投产进度较慢，供给端释放也并不快，前 5 月全国原煤产量仅小幅增长 4.0%，进口煤近 2 月增速也大幅回落；另一方面，需求也好于预期，1-5 月火电发电量、粗钢产量累计同比分别上涨 8.1%和 5.4%。

Peru is among the leading global players in the production of metallic minerals. In 2017, the country ranked second in the world in terms of silver, copper and zinc output, with global shares of 17.2%, 12.4% and 11.2%, respectively. Moreover, it was the fourth-largest molybdenum and lead manufacturer (with shares of 9.7% and 6.5%). In 2016, mining was Peru’s second-largest economic sector, accounting for 7.7% of GDP, 3.6% of total employment and 58.8% of national exports. However, over the period 2012-2016, the sector was affected by the negative phase in the cycle of international metal commodity prices, which caused a 5.8% average annual decline in revenues from mining exports. At the same time, the volume of foreign sales of mining products rose at a CAGR of 3.9% over the same period, pushed up by the strong performance of domestic output, which increased at a CAGR of 5%.

India is a significant player in the global gems and jewellery market. Gold, in particular, has important cultural importance in India and gold jewellery is frequently purchased for weddings or religious festivals. Additionally, gold jewellery is also used as a form of savings, especially in rural parts of the country where many Indians still do not have easy access to formal financial institutions. In recent years, the tastes of Indian consumers have been shifting. Economic growth has created a widening Indian middle class that has been looking for different aesthetics compared with traditional, heavy gold jewellery. This has created rising demand for jewellery made from other precious metals including silver and platinum, and for diamond jewellery.

煤价 4 月下旬以来连续上涨，经济韧性及水电占比下降是主因。港口动力煤价格自 4 月中旬以来止跌反弹，在往年 5 月中上旬的淡季出现加速上涨，目前价格较低点已累积上涨超 20%，价格上涨主要来自需求的推动：一是今年 4～5 月份制造业投资和地产投资都保持扩张，提升了电力整体需求，前 5 个月用电量同比增长 9.8%；二是水电出力较弱；三是 5 月中旬南方持续高温，东部沿海电厂日耗不断攀升。煤价淡季超预期上涨，逐步改善了市场对需求较为悲观的预期。

我们认为布伦特原油与WTI原油价差扩大的根本原因在于WTI反映了美国原油市场供应过剩的基本面，但由于运输瓶颈等问题又不能直接冲击Brent价格。美国新的输油管道预计于19年下半年投入运营，在此之前，运量有限的公路运输是缓解运输瓶颈的唯一途径。

18 年投资策略核心观点：18 年煤炭消费增速在能源消费弹性恢复叠加能源结构调整阶段性放缓中继续回升，但供给端产能与库存自然出清叠加扩张性投资乏力，产量增速将明显下滑，18年供需缺口明显进一步放大，同时全球陷入煤炭紧缺状态，价格继续上扬而非预期的稳中有降或维持高位。由此带来业绩增速继续高企，同时悲观预期证伪后估值明显修复，在业绩超预期和估值提升下，煤炭板块迎来历史性重大投资机会。