生猪供给短缺支撑猪价屡创新高，上市公司业绩环比改善明显，根据公告数据，牧原股份、温氏股份单三季度预计盈利14.5-16.5 亿元、45.67-47.67亿元。随着10 月份三季报的陆续披露，市场对上市公司未来出栏量将有更准确的认识。此外，由于非洲猪瘟疫情的存在，产能恢复进程缓慢，我们预计，未来至少一年，猪价仍将高位运行，而上市公司凭借着在生物安全防控、资金以及种猪资源等方面的优势加快补栏节奏，上市公司市占率在此过程中加速提升。我们认为，在高猪价以及高出栏量的拉动下，上市公司利润快速释放，生猪养殖板块将再次带动市场追捧情绪。

从目前的供应格局来看，未来一年生猪价格有望保持高价位，鸡肉作为猪肉的替代品（白羽鸡主要在团膳环节、黄鸡主要在家庭消费），我们认为，未来一段时期内需求将持续上升。

9 月份农林牧渔板块下跌8.5 个百分点，沪深300 上涨0.4 个百分点，板块跑输沪深300 指数8.9 个百分点。子板块中，动物保健、畜禽养殖和饲料板块分别上涨4.8%、下跌10.8%和下跌12.3%。

Meat demand has been considered as major factor alfalfa prices as there is higher demand for meat, there is higher demand for production and thereby higher productivity. Growing demand for quality feed mainly alfalfa across major countries China, Japan, US, UAE and Saudi Arabia has resulted in higher prices in the recent years. Correlation has been calculated between US alfalfa prices and the meat production with major alfalfa markets during the period 2014-2018. Average of correlation of each meat category including chicken, swine and beef and veal meat is calculated and also average of all meat to analyze the impact of each category on US and Spain alfalfa prices. Similarly, correlation for major alfalfa markets (supply and demand) has been calculated.