2016年，中国新车销量保持稳定增长，截止2016年6月底，汽车保有量达1.84亿，汽车保有量的持续增长，加之现有车辆车龄结构老化，将极大地促进养护行业的快速发展。艾瑞分析认为，新车销售增速放缓以及利润的降低，使有着较高利润的汽车后市场成为目前及未来汽车市场发展重点。汽车厂商、互联网巨头、独立第三方企业通过各种形式布局汽车后市场。养护行业作为后市场中高频消费一个行业，市场潜力巨大。

Child care or daycare centers admit children up to six years of age. These centers are equipped with personal learning and playing facilities to provide preschool education, discipline, and child development services. In these centers, children are engaged in various kinds of developmental activities such as singing, dancing, sports, and painting. As most of the learning and character building in a child takes place during kindergarten and preschool stages, the staff in the child care centers offer children individual attention to help them in their emotional and physical growth.

清明小长假期间，全国旅游市场共接待游客 0.93 亿人次， 大部分景区客流好于去年同期，表明我国旅游需求景气复 苏。旅游消费的升级以及全域旅游的发展带来了整合需求 的提升，上市公司资源注入和整合预期提升。同时，国企 改革加速混改进行，员工持股以及市值做大预期提升。我 们建议重点关注国企改革推进中资源整合及资本运作预期 强的景区龙头个股峨眉山 A、桂林旅游、丽江旅游、云南 旅游、黄山旅游、张家界。

一周主要回顾与展望：上周雄安新区概念带动资本市场，而休闲服务指数休闲服务指数上 涨 1.09%，相对沪深 300 指数下跌 0.69%。其中酒店板块下岭南控股（14.66%）、首旅酒 店（9.16%）、锦江股份（3.53%）涨幅靠前，符合我们对行业出现弱复苏迹象的观点。4 月 5 日中免+拉格代尔联合竞标取得香港国际机场烟酒免税标段经营权。新合约有效期为 2017 年 11 月 18 日至 2024 年 9 月 30 日。由于国内市场特殊性，免税品销售中烟酒占比 远高于国际（比如浦东机场烟酒占比 40%以上，国际平均 25%左右）。因此，中免集团本 身在烟酒产品上具有较优的规模效应和渠道优势。另一方面，香港虽然没有消费税和关税， 但对烟酒产品征消费税额度为全东亚地区最高，因此烟酒免税利润空间丰厚。根据 DFS 在 香港机场的特许经营费进行推算，我们估计烟酒标段对应 17 年的营业额在 23-25 亿之间。

Organizations have outsourced several business processes to service providers with the aim of focusing on the core business offerings. This will help them to remain competitive in the domestic and international market. Engineering services have also been outsourced in recent years on a large scale. However, this time, it is not only to reduce costs but also to bring about innovation in product development. Engineering services are different from other functional outsourcing services due to the nature of complexities involved in various phases of the product development process. Innovation is the key to staying competitive in the marketplace. It is needed for organizations operating in industry verticals such as automotive. The technology landscape in several industry verticals is changing at a rapid pace, which has replaced the legacy system.

The global fire hose market will be driven by the advances in product technology that enhance the ease of use. For example, layflat fire hoses, appropriate for many applications, help transfer the liquids over a long distance easily as they are lightweight. In contrast, rigid hoses are heavier and require more space and manpower, making them difficult to handle. So, product innovation that enhances convenience will help organizations gain competence and competitiveness in the market. To overcome these challenge vendors are developing lightweight fire hoses. Proper fire safety measures are essential in industries such as industrial, manufacturing, forestry, and commercial. However, the lack of product knowledge and inadequate staffing will restrict the growth of the fire hose market. Providing proper training and improving consumer approach to fire safety will help vendors resolve these issues.

快递仍处繁荣期，行业增速高位缓降。2016 年全国快递总单量 313.50 亿件，同比增长51.7%，快递总收入 4005.0 亿元，同比增长 44.6%。我们认为，随着上游电商企业增速放缓，自身基数过高等原因，快递单量，长期可能出现高位缓降的势态，但短期内仍将维持40%-50%左右的增速，一方面，拆单频率增加在一定程度上抵冲电商增速放缓带来的影响；另一方面，移动购物及定向营销使得微商行业逐渐兴起，2016 年微商交易额可达 3607.3亿元，同比增长 98.3%，这为快递的增长提供了新支点。

Pet owners treat their pets as family members and pamper them with a variety of pet food; this is directly contributing to an increase in the sales of pet care products. Pet owners have also started preferring healthy and natural food products for their pets. Therefore, pet food manufacturers are focusing on formulating pet food products with new ingredients to provide better nutrition. For instance, in the dry pet food segment, in 2014, Colgate-Palmolive introduced a new product called Hill’s Science Diet Adult Oral Care. This product is formulated with fiber content to provide protection from plaque and tartar build in adult dogs.

1980年至2015年的35年间，中国GDP实现了12.2%的年复合增长，通常被认为中国的经济奇迹；1955年至1985年的30年间，日本GDP实现了14.6%的年复合增长，通常被认为东亚奇迹。中国经济不比日本奇迹太多，日本的底子更好，经济增速更快。以世界银行的购买力平价美元计算， 2015年中国人均GDP为1.4万美元，正好与1986年日本人均GDP的1.4万美元重合。中国现在可比日本1980年代中期。

餐饮旅游板块周跌 1.75%，跌幅 11/29（中信行业指数），分别跑输上证综指和沪深 300 指数 1.2 和 1.97 个百分点；年初至 12 月 2 日跌 24.36%，跌幅 3/29 （中信行业指数），分别跑输上证综指和沪深300指数 16.02 和 18.94个百分点。