经济放缓带动我国能源消费低速增长，但表现分化，石油需求增速放缓、天然气需求保持较快增长。 2018 年 Q1-Q3，随着油价逐渐上行，由 67.2 美元/桶上涨至 75.8 美元/桶，行业毛利率相应下探，由 18.2%降至 15.6%。 

1～2 月，生产方面，石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1%，较上年同期下降 1.0 个百分点；原油加工量 1.02 亿吨，同比增长 6.1%，增速较上年同期下降1.2 个百分点；汽油、煤油产量继续增长，但柴油产量出现下滑。进出口方面，成品油出口量为 922.6 万吨，同比增长 21.2%，增速较上年同期提高 16.6 个百分点。价格方面，2 月布伦特 Dtd 现货价为 64.22美元/桶，与 12 月相比上涨 11.90%；国内成品油价格四次上调。投资方面，投资增速明显回升，固定资产投资额累计同比增长 23%，而上年同期为同比下降 1.6%。

Singapore has distinguished itself as one of the leading oil refining and petrochemicals players in Asia. Despite lacking indigenous hydrocarbons resources, it boasts thriving upstream as well as downstream sectors. Petrochemicals and refining remain the lifeblood of Singapore, with strong regional demand growth meaning there is potential for capacity expansion - although investment in countries such as China and Vietnam has led to increasingly fierce competition. With dedicated government backing, the chemicals industry as a whole has proved to be one of the largest contributors to the country's manufacturing output. A strong base in refining, availability of world-class infrastructure, cost-effective logistics and a location at the crossroads of Asia, with ready market access to the Asia-Pacific region, the US, the Middle East and Africa, set the pace for the development of a world-class petrochemicals industry. Major players include US-based ExxonMobil, Netherlandsheadquartered Royal Dutch Shell, Japanese Mitsui, Sumitomo Chemical Singapore (a wholly owned subsidiary of Japan's Sumitomo Chemical Company) and Eastman Chemical Singapore.

化工企业的盈利主要来自于行业周期波动和自身成本优势，行业波动更多依赖于行业供需因素，而公司的成本优势是企业的核心竞争力，并且随着行业的发展，优势企业相对于边际产能的成本优势在不断扩大。化工企业的发展符合典型的马太效应，强者恒强。我们认为，化工企业的成本差是价值投资在化工领域起作用的基础，成本优势为上市公司提供了业绩底，为价值投资提供了业绩基础。为了更好地研究清楚化工龙头企业的业绩底部，我们会研究一系列行业的业绩底部。

“十三五”期间，我国七大石化基地的众多大型炼化项目，目前部分项目已经进入投产期。这些大型的炼化项目对炼化行业的影响，从炼油来看，一个是对地炼的冲击，另一个是中国成品油的出口将显著增加。从化工来看，目前烯烃和芳烃下游衍生物还在大量进口，新建炼化项目将使这些产品进口依赖度大幅下降。但是目前规划的乙烷制乙烯项目受到港口和利润限制投产还存在不确定性，而PX 未来利润下降是大概率事件。

Turkey’s strategic geographic position at the crossroad between Asia, Europe and the Middle East, makes the country an important energy transition hub. The Turkish Straits, which include the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, are among the busiest waterways in the world and are primary oil export routes for Russia and the Asian oil producers. According to the EIA, some 48,000 vessels transit the straits each year. In 2016, an estimated 2.4 mmbbl/d of crude oil and petroleum products flowed through the Turkish Straits. Crude oil accounted for an estimated 80% of the total. Volumes peaked to more than 3.4 mmbbl/d in 2004, however Russia has shifted crude oil exports away from the Black Sea and toward the Baltic ports.

Thailand’s leading oil and gas producer, wholesaler and retailer is PTT, which holds significant shares in a number of large companies in the sector, including E&P entity PTTEP, which is the major player in the country’s upstream operations, alongside US giant Chevron. The midstream segment is dominated by PTT, while in the downstream segment there are a larger number of companies, especially in the consumer fuel business, where a number of foreign players compete with the local ones.

Up to 2014, the oil and gas sector in Mexico was wholly controlled by PEMEX. The lack of competitive incentives stalled investment, causing a continued decline in production and reserves since the beginning of the 2000s. From 2000 to 2013 crude oil production fell by 16.8%, which had major implications on earnings for the federal government and led to higher hydrocarbon imports. To counter these trends, in 2013 the country enacted the energy reform, a constitutional amendment that completely overhauled the regulatory framework of the sector, opening it to private participation and foreign investment. Five years on from the reform, private ownership is still at an incipient stage even though more than 100 exploration and production contracts have been awarded to local and international private players through three tenders, comprising a total of eight bidding sessions starting in 2015. Some of the awardees have made important discoveries since, but few have started commercial operations and it is hard to determine when they will begin to make a difference in total production. Furthermore, the sector’s future under Mexico’s new president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, remains unclear. Some members of his cabinet have been critical of the 2013 energy reform, calling upon the government to revise the awarded contracts, whilst promising to respect the awarded contracts if no unlawfulness is found, and even promote more bidding rounds.

Petronas is entrusted with exclusive ownership over Malaysia’s oil and gas resources by virtue of the Petroleum Development Act 1974 . The upstream activities are carried out through either PSCs or RSCs with other upstream companies. In the midstream segment, Petronas dominates the pipeline transmission, but competes against other shipping operators in the tanker business. As for downstream, Petronas is a major player in petrochemicals, but is a less formidable competitor in the consumer fuel business.

Oil and gas together account for 35.61% of the total energy consumption in India. The country is the world’s third-largest consumer of petroleum products after the US and China. India boasts substantial underdeveloped oil and gas reserves which is propitious, as the crude oil and natural gas have been in the ascendant, in an effort to replace coal as the predominant source for power generation in the country. The government has therefore been focusing on widespread regulatory and pricing reforms in this sector to unlock stranded resources, encourage investments and reduce bureaucratic inefficiencies.