2023Q3 中后期煤价显著反弹，但动力煤市场均价、焦煤季度长协价环比仍下降，因此煤炭公司利润因销售结构的差异分化明显。Q3 板块整体业绩环比降幅有限，报表表现符合我们预期，经营性现金流也环比改善，景气依然维持高位。展望四季度中后期，在季节性因素以及政策的催化下，预计煤价仍震荡向上，煤炭龙头公司低估值、分红等价值吸引力仍在，利好板块反弹。

近期海外价格呈上涨趋势。需求端，巴以冲突扰动国际能源市场；欧盟天 然气进入旺季后仍有上涨预期，进而带动煤炭价格上涨；印度煤炭需求持续增加， 加大对外采购量。供给端，全球主要供应国并无显著增量。各国煤炭价格目前仍 处于高位，近期海外价格呈上涨趋势。

India’s metal sector plays a pivotal role in fulfilling nation's increasing infrastructure demands and supporting its evolving manufacturing sector. Indian steel consumption is expected to grow strong 9% to 142mt over FY23-25E led by a) GOI’s strong focus on building infrastructure, b) recovering automobile industry volumes with rising affordability and electrification trend, c) rising urbanization driving strong volumes in realty sector and d) increasing private capex utilization across industries. Indian steel companies are expected to add ~22mt of capacities over next two years and drive volume growth. However, near term global demand is muted led by weaker China and developed nations struggling from inflation and higher interest rates, both peaking out. Though coking coal prices are expected to moderate due to improved supply conditions, Iron ore prices are weak and would trend depending upon China’s gradual recovery over next few quarters. As Chinese GDP growth is expected to be stimulus and consumption driven, demand recovery will be slow and steel prices may bottom out as industry is making losses. With curtailed production in 2HFY24, we expect pricing to get support and thereby Indian players would be ultimate beneficiaries of the same.

今年三季度煤价总体呈现“旺季不旺但淡季反弹”的反季节性特征。7-8 月 虽正值夏季用煤高峰，但较为平淡的旺季刚需难抵高库存压力，煤价表现较 弱。而自8 月下旬起受煤矿事故频发影响，产地安监趋严下局部地区煤炭供 应偏紧，同时高卡煤需求结构性偏紧，带动整体行情淡季上涨。从季度均价 表现来看，3Q23 北港动力煤均价为866 元/吨，环比下滑48 元/吨（-5.3%）， 或将抑制煤企三季度业绩释放。我们认为当前结构性供应偏紧叠加事故干扰 下市场情绪发酵，共同驱动煤价弹性上涨；但随着生产的陆续恢复，供应扰 动对煤价的刺激作用或将逐步减弱，后续需关注供给恢复力度及速度。

国内外动力煤、炼焦煤价格上升。截至9 月22 日，秦皇岛动力煤山西优混5500 平仓价格995.00 元/吨，环比上月上涨180 元/吨，涨幅为22.09%；澳大利亚 纽卡斯尔港NEWC 动力煤离岸价格159.00 美元/吨，环比上月涨6.00%；京唐 港对来自澳大利亚的主焦煤库提含税价报收2330.00 元/吨，环比上月涨 10.43%。截至9 月18 日，综合的中国炼焦煤价格指数报收2009.30 元/吨，环 比上月涨3.01%；

年内第二季度级别增配点已至，建议逢调增配，盈亏比较高。对行情模式的认知？作为典型周期，23 年黄金股已处牛市中继，不同于 22 年处底部，当前择时的把握或重于一味强调趋势。为什么当前是配置点？金价或仍是反弹，但从周期的位置来看，黄金的锚—美债利率 4.2%，处于过去一年震荡箱体上沿，负向定价较充分，盈亏比大幅提升。若不降息，亦可做箱体交易，若降息则锦上添花。