In a world where national oil companies have successfully managed the process of generating upstream activity and revenues while leveraging the expertise of international oil companies, Ecuador has struggled to find a balance between its national interests and international shareholder expectations. This has rendered China an increasingly dominant player in Ecuador's extractive sector over the past several years.

Late 2017, we removed the Limbe refinery capacity expansion previously included in our forecast. There are no recent updates on refining expansion works and it remains unclear whether any expansion works have started at all. Nothing indicates an expansion will go through. In addition, given the difficult financial position of SONARA, we believe an expansion is unlikely to go through for the time being.

As present, Cambodia has no petroleum law. While new legislation is currently being drafted, the sector is currently governed by the 1991 Petroleum Regulations. In addition to the regulations, the draft model PSC is also used and was adopted by the General Department of Petroleum to provide comprehensive guidelines for the petroleum sector. The government has suggested it is working on a new comprehensive 'Petroleum Law', increasing uncertainty for investors, which has in turn stalled exploration and development efforts. The draft petroleum law, which was due for release by the end of 2015, has been postponed until several technical issues are clarified. The law will regulate the extraction of oil from onshore and offshore fields. In particular, the government has explained that it needs more time to study how revenue from the industry can be managed, alongside the proposed establishment of a national petroleum company.

The chemicals and petrochemicals industry in Ukraine has traditionally been considered fundamental to the economy, owing to the role it plays in manufacturing intermediates. The government has gradually begun to implement financial reforms and privatisation legislation, allowing foreign participation in the industry. However, the country's civil war has effectively scuppered reform plans and stopped production at petrochemicals plants. Considerable structural changes are under way in the chemicals and petrochemicals industry. State-owned enterprises constitute less than one-fifth of the total number of petrochemical facilities, and account for about one third of the products.

Turkey's petrochemicals industry saw solid growth in 2017 with chemicals up 4.5% y-o-y and rubber and plastic growing 6.0%. This was higher than growth of 3% and 5% that we had anticipated in the previous quarterly report. Growth was helped by a low base in 2016 as well as solid local market demand. While an increase in refinery capacity should have a positive impact in 2018, the rate of growth is likely to slow due to capacity constraints. In 2017, Turkey's organic chemicals exports rose 44.5% y-o-y to USD0.66bn while primary plastics exports grew 23.7% to USD1.14bn. Over the same period, organic chemicals imports rose 24.5% to USD5.25bn and primary plastics imports rose 16.8% to USD10.16bn. While import growth was slower than exports, the country's petrochemicals trade deficit grew with organic chemicals up 62.0% to USD4.59bn and primary plastics up 53.5% to USD9.02bn.

Croatia approved a legal framework for the exploration of oil and the production of oil and gas in 2013. The Hydrocarbons Exploration and Production Act (ZIEU) framework was aligned with EU oil and gas regulations. An updated Hydrocarbons Law was approved in 2018. The Mining Act (ZR), which also came into effect in 2013, is another key regulatory framework governing the oil and gas sector.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade is the central state agency that deals with policy regarding the use of mineral resources, energy, gas, mining, crude oil and trade. The Ministry of the Environment enforces environmental laws in the mining sector and has the right to revoke exploration and mining leases if laws are violated.

As part of a broader energy sector reform to boost the competitiveness and efficiency of the domestic oil & gas sector longdominated by large state-owned enterprises (SOEs), Beijing is gradually opening up the sector to more private and foreign participation. The pace of reforms to date has been carefully managed. Despite calling for broader SOE reforms in the 13th Five-Year Plan, the government has since campaigned for a bigger, better and stronger SOEs, and in certain instances, have introduced policies derailing private sector growth. A case in point is the domestic refining sector. After being allowed to grow rampantly over much of 2015-2016, the country's independent teapot refineries are coming under increasingly government scrutiny amid allegations of tax evasion and the need to comply with stricter environmental regulations. Although they retain the option to import crude directly from international suppliers, the teapots remain banned from exporting surplus fuels, which leave many of these players largely at the mercy of the health of the overall economy and fuels demand.

A high degree of government intervention and an opaque business environment will erode Chad's attractiveness to foreign investors. Despite this, the 2010 production sharing agreements are reasonable in their proposals and clear in their framework.

Brunei has plans to expand exploration and production in the upstream sector. For the downstream sector, the new refinery and petrochemical complex at Pulau Muara Besar will support the further diversification of Brunei's economy from crude oil exports, creating new revenue streams from more specialised products.