2023 年全球新能源汽车持续高景气发展，销量有望创新高，带动产业链需求高增长。在原材料价格持续回落的情况下，产业链利润面临重新分配，各环节走势或面临分化；动力电池和中游材料领域新技术有望逐步提升渗透率，带动产业链技术升级，维持行业强于大市评级。

多重因素扰动上半年汽车市场，新能源和出口拉动作用显著。23年一季度汽车行业价格体系不稳，多品牌处于消化库存状态，企业盈利普遍承压。新能源车和出口成为拉动我国汽车增长的两个重要引擎。但新能源车发展并不均衡：比亚迪、特斯拉贡献了超过70%的增量，大部分车企的新能源业务处亏损状态，8-15万价格带新能源车渗透率较低，县乡农村区域渗透率较低。我国依然有庞大燃油车市场待替换，自主品牌份额上升空间仍大。

汽车下乡政策回顾：现金补贴效果显著。2009 年汽车下乡回顾。国务院在2009年公布《汽车产业调整和振兴规划》提出，从2009 年3 月1 日到12 月31 日，国家将安排50 亿元，对农民购买1.3 升及以下排量的微型客车，以及将三轮汽车或低速货车报废换购轻型载货车的，给予一次性财政补贴。2010 年初，国务院决定将“汽车下乡”政策实施延长一年至2010 年12 月31 日。2020-2022 年新能源汽车下乡回顾。为促进农村地区新能源汽车的推广应用，引导农村居民出行方式升级，国家政府部门分别于2020 年7 月、2021 年3 月和2022 年5 月联合开展了新能源汽车下乡活动，由此新能源汽车开始不断布局渗透三四线城市汽车市场。推动新能源汽车下乡，为其市场发展带来了巨大潜力，同时也快速拉动了新能源汽车销量的增长。根据中国汽车工业协会的数据显示，2020-2022 年新能源下乡车型销量增速分别为80%、169%和87%，新能源汽车销量增速分别为13.35%、157.57%和95.60%，新能源下乡车型销量的增速高于新能源汽车的整体销量增速，对整个新能源市场的销量贡献较大。

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