库存升幅趋缓厂库下降，钢材现货价格拐点已至。本周 Mysteel 统计全国钢材社会库存升幅较上周放缓，同时螺纹、线材钢厂库存出现下降，虽然社会库存继续上升，但整体库存上升的幅度大幅放缓。钢厂出货积极，厂库下降之后钢厂挺价将会明显，现货一旦企稳，补库存将形成正反馈，目前局部区域出现封库情况，钢价拐点已至如期反弹。

在当前锌价高企的市场环境下，锌冶炼企业与锌矿企业之间的利润分享条款对实际加工费的影响巨大。以国内的条款来

说，国内现货锌价以15000 元每吨作为基准，现货锌价与15000元之间差价的20%会让渡给冶炼商。由于锌价大概率仍将维持高位，而上游矛盾逐步缓解，我们认为2018 年锌上游和中游利润将进一步改善，铅锌行业相关标的仍值得重点关注。

根据废钢的三种来源并结合我国下游用钢行业具体情况及历史特点，预计到2020年我国废钢产生量将达到2.8 亿吨，而其中增量的8000 万吨全部来自老旧废钢。到2025 年，我国废钢产生量将超过4 亿吨。届时如果粗钢产量不变的情况下，能够满足国内50%钢铁生产的原料需要。同时，废钢的产生量大大高于美国(8000 万吨)等发达国家。

本周上证综合指数上涨1.72%，钢铁板块上涨0.16%。周内钢价先抑后扬，主要源于冬储逐步启动。目前钢铁下游实际消费随着春节临近已经逐步进入传统淡季，市场价格波动主要来自于产业链的冬储行为。若产业链对后期乐观，则会加大开春前的资源储备，相应淡季钢价相对较强，但对旺季来临不利。相反若相对谨慎，则淡季钢价可能偏弱，而旺季钢价弹性更足。

Aluminum casting is a process of melting aluminum and injecting it into a hollow mold to get the desired shape. Aluminum castings are used in numerous applications due to multiple advantages like high tensile strength, molded inserts, fine surface finish and high heat resistivity. Aluminum cast components are used to manufacture subassemblies of vehicles, planes, and trains. These castings are also used in industries such as mining, construction, and electrical and electronics. The high demand for aluminum castings from small appliance part manufacturers and the automotive and machinery industries will boost the growth of the global aluminum casting market during the forecast period. The growing demand for lightweight and fuel-efficient vehicles is also a major factor contributing to the growth of the market. Casting products are manufactured using the following methods

本周钢价快速回调，成材和钢坯价格均有不同程度回落，随着全国各地近期雨雪天气增多，陕西，安徽，河南等地普降大雪，钢材成交寡淡，贸易商冬储情绪也逐步延后，钢材库存整体快速积累，周升41.92 万吨，螺纹增长32.55 万吨，近期一些年末检修高炉逐步复产，高炉开工率连续两周回升，潜在供给快速上升，使得商家挺价较为艰难，但我们认为当前回调属于季节性因素，往期十二月，一月也处于钢价回调淡季，冬储时间一般也在1 月下旬逐步展开，价格的可接受程度成为冬储关键，我们认为钢价在3800-4000 元/吨水平可能会给予贸易商更多做库存信心，库存由被动补库向主动补库过度仍需等待。

需求端，2017 年1-11 月，房地产开发投资完成额累计同比增长7.5%，增速较1-10 月下降0.3 个百分点，1-11 月基建投资完成额累计同比增长15.83%，增速较1-10 月下降0.02 个百分点。2018 年1 月，天气渐冷叠加年终临近，部分工地陆续停工，行业需求季节性减弱；但随着冬储行情或正逐渐开启，短期内需求弱势有望得到改善。供给端，本周全国高炉开工率、河北地区高炉开工率小幅上升，但仍处于低位

The global precious metals market is expected to grow at a significant pace during the forecast period, driven by increased sales of jewelry, consumer electronics, and automobiles. Gold, silver, and platinum drive the precious metal market globally. India, Singapore, and China are the major consumers of precious metals.

Steel long products include several forms of long and heavy steel goods, which are made as per application requirements. The global steel long products market is growing at a stable rate and will experience a steady growth in the near future. The growing construction industry, with increasing number of construction projects, is propelling the market demand for steel long products. The increasing investment in the construction sector and infrastructure developments in developing countries will impact the global steel long products market positively.