Sri Lanka’s real GDP growth came in at 3.2% y-o-y for Q118, similar to the previous quarter, as the secondary sector underperformed. However, we expect growth to be broad-based and pick up over the rest of the year, helped by low base effects and government policies. Accordingly, we maintain our forecast for real GDP growth to pick up to 4.2% in 2018, from 3.1% in 2017.

There was volatility in computer hardware spending over the review period, a trend that reflected the impact of PC saturation, the diffusion cycle for tablet ownership, and upgrade cycles in key product categories. After a steep and sustained decline 2012-2015 the AV segment returned to growth in 2016-2017 based on demand for new products and technologies. The smartphone boom occurred early in South Korea, and therefore handset segment performance was weak over the review period.

Singapore's tourism industry benefits largely from its strategic location at the heart of Asia Pacific. It will continue to leverage its strong network of infrastructure for sea, road and air travel maintaining its position as a stopover destination in the region. The city-state, however, offers a diversified range of activities for tourists beyond this. Combined with a dynamic hotel sector offering, Singapore will continue to be an attractive place for investors.

The return to growth for Saudi Arabia’s all-important oil sector coupled with a strengthening of non-oil activity will ease the country out of recession over the course of 2018, underpinning a positive performance for the kingdom’s freight industry. The ongoing economic diversification efforts to reorient the economy towards non-hydrocarbons and high capital investments supporting construction and infrastructure development will maintain the relatively steady growth across the freight modes between 2018 and 2022.

Russia has enormous unexploited potential as a tourism destination; however, the structural challenges facing developers are commensurate with the rewards on offer. Outside of St Petersburg and Moscow, transport infrastructure is underdeveloped and there is only limited awareness of the attractions on offer. Corruption is a major barrier to private investors, as are bureaucratic hurdles which make new developments time consuming and costly. Despite these barriers, Russia remains an attractive market as inbound arrivals are increasing and the government is taking steps to develop tourism related infrastructure.

Historically, road freight has always dominated the freight sector. Rail freight has been important, although it has historically only accounted for just below 20% of the freight mix. The importance comes from a combination of the country's geography, the economic importance of commodity production and heavy industry in Russia, as well as by the limitations of other transportation networks. Russia is characterised by significant distances both between population centres and between suppliers of raw materials and their intermediate or end customers, which naturally benefits the development of rail freight. Russia's road freight is the fifth longest in the world after the US, India, China and Brazil. Historically, road network development has been of minor importance for the government. Little has changed in the freight mix over the past decade. Only road freight has increased its share slightly on the back of growing consumer purchasing power, whereas the other modes have remained unchanged.

The computer hardware trend turned negative in 2015-2016 when sol depreciation against the US dollar reduced affordability and resulted in deferred purchases.  Software and services segments were the strongest areas of the market throughout the review period based on the trend towards digitisation in both the public and private sector throughout 2012-2017.

Road freight like in many countries is the dominant freight mode in Panama and will continue to be so in 2018 and over the the course of our forecast period ending 2022. Strong canal usage will support and bolster all freight modes. Road freight has been steadily increasing its influence in Panama, rising from a 95.5% share in 2011 to a 96.6% share in 2018. Air freight and rail have shrunk, but that has not diminished their importance. The low fuel costs and flexibility offered by road have contributed to the speed and cost benefits of this form of transport, while lack of investment in the railways further weakened the rail stronghold.

Widespread illegal mining activity and rising regulatory risks stemming from improving commodity prices will pose challenges to miners in SSA over the coming months and hinder investment into the region. Meanwhile, South Africa's mining sector will continue to face headwinds over the coming months, despite the introduction a new and improved draft mining charter.

Road freight is the dominant mode in the Namibian freight mix and will remain so well beyond our forecast period. This mode benefits from the highest level of transport infrastructure, not only in Namibia, but in the region, ranking an impressive 31st in the World Economic Forum's 2017-2018 Global Competitiveness Report. Road freight will account for 97.9% of all freight handled within the country in 2018, and we see little scope for this changing over the forecast period.