关键词：热带气旋;微分方程;强度;数学模型;预测
摘 要：The goal of this research has been to improve tropical cyclone intensity prediction through a theoretical study of the hurricane inner core (i.e., within 100-km), the role of ocean structure on hurricane intensity, and the incorporation of those results in a simplified intensity prediction system. The intensity prediction system is being tested in an operational framework in the western North Pacific and is being provided to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) for evaluation. The intensity model is based on the statistical- dynamical logistic growth equation model (LGEM), which has generally been the most accurate operational intensity model in the Atlantic basin during the last several hurricane seasons.