关键词：冰川；气候；预测；洪水；大气加热
摘 要：Glacierized change in the Himalayas affects river-discharge, hydro-energy and agricultural production, and Glacial Lake Outburst Flood potential, but its quantification and extent of impacts remains highly uncertain. Here we present conservative, comprehensive and quantitative predictions for glacier area and meltwater flux changes in Bhutan, monsoonal Himalayas. In particular, we quantify the uncertainties associated with the glacier area and meltwater flux changes due to uncertainty in climate data, a critical problem for much of High Asia. Based on a suite of gridded climate data and a robust glacier melt model, our results show that glacier area and meltwater change projections can vary by an order of magnitude for different climate datasets. However, the most conservative results indicate that, even if climate were to remain at the present-day mean values, almost 10of Bhutan s glacierized area would vanish and the meltwater flux would drop by as much as 30. Under the conservative scenario of an additional 1 C regional warming, glacier retreat is going to continue until about 25of Bhutan s glacierized area will have disappeared and the annual meltwater flux, after an initial spike, would drop by as much as 65.