We forecast Bosnia-Herzegovina's GDP to grow 3% in 2018, 3.3% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020, supported by investment in infrastructure, as well as private consumption and falling unemployment. After several years of fluctuating growth, Bosnia's construction sector will hold a moderate trajectory over the coming five years, supported by bilateral investment and structural reforms, as the country seeks to meet IMF loan obligations and to secure EU accession. Growth for construction will be 2.3% annually over 2018-2022, driven by transport and energy infrastructure investment. GFCF has potential to drive further economic expansion and contribute to construction growth, though given political uncertainty after and a relatively unwelcoming business environment, this will remain heavily dependent on external financing from institutions such as the IMF, EU or EBRD. Unfortunately, heightened political uncertainty following the October election poses a downside risk to the investment outlook. It is already unclear when the IMF will release the next tranche of its financing programme, with approval unlikely until a new government is in place.

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