关键词：隐马尔科夫模型；预测；学生保留；
摘 要：A Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) is a large-scale web-based course that is offered to a very large number of participants. In the last few years, MOOCs have seen an increase in popularity due to the emergence of several well-designed online-education websites, such as edX and Coursera, and rising interest from top universities, such as MIT, Stanford and UC Berkeley, to open a variety of their courses to the wider public. The appeal for end consumers lies in the accessibility of high-quality education from any location regardless of personal background. MOOCs typically contain short lecture videos (10-15 minutes), as well as quizzes and homework assignments to assess students’ understanding of subject matter.