The global economy in 2019 is expected to slow down with the slower growth rate due to the effects of the US-China trade war and signs of tightening monetary policy of the EU and the US. Goldman Sachs forecasts that global growth rate in 2019 will only reach 3.5%, lower than 3.8% compared to 2018. This war not only has a negative impact on world growth from the instability of key regions and economies, but also creates unpredictable fluctuations in the financial, monetary, and commodity markets. Thereby, this will hinder the flow of global investment and create a deep gap between economies. In the US, policy will continue to tighten, which is expected to two-time increase by 0.25% in interest rates in 2019. About Eurozone, ECB has started to narrow its balance sheet at the end of the year and would raise interest rates in the second half of 2019. China is also facing difficulties in operating economic policies in the context of trade war. In the United States, in 2019, the OECD forecasts that the US economy will grow by 2.7% (lower than the forecast of 2.9% -3.0% of 2018), the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.5% -3.7%, equivalent to 2018. Inflation has shown signs of increasing again with a forecast of about 2.2% for 2019, but still within the target of 2% of FED. While employment growth in the United States is slowing, consumer growth remains stable and is supported by a rise in wages when the labor market is getting tighter. Fiscal stimulus policies issued in 2017 and 2018 are still impacting on the economy but will weaken in 2019. Presently, President Trump continues to maintain a low oil price policy to reduce transportation and production costs to boost the growth of US domestic economy. We note that oil prices have a big impact on countries' inflation, the initial decline in oil prices and then stabilization will help the inflation index remain stable in the coming period.

SECTOR INVESTMENT STRATEGY FOR 2019

SECTOR OUTLOOK 2019