In September, the OPEC Reference Basket increased sharply by almost 7%, or $4.92 m-o-m, to average $77.18/b the highest since October 2014. Crude oil futures prices also increased for the month, mainly supported by geo-political tension, growing concerns over a shortage in global oil supply and low US oil inventories, particularly in Cushing, Oklahoma. ICE Brent was $5.27 higher at $79.11/b compared with the previous month, NYMEX WTI was up $2.24 at $70.08/b and DME Oman increased by $6.08 to $78.75/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent was $20.23 higher at $72.74/b, NYMEX WTI increased by $17.43 to $66.79/b and DME Oman was up $19.25 at $70.48/b, compared to the same period a year earlier. The Brent-WTI spread widened to average $9.02/b for the month. Speculative net long positions ended mixed, significantly higher for ICE Brent, while lower for NYMEX WTI. As for market structure, the backwardation in Dubai expanded sharply in September, while that of WTI eased. The Brent market structure flipped into backwardation amid concerns over a shortage global oil supply. Apart from Asian grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes decreased due to an anticipated tightening of sour crude and high availability of sweet crude.

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