关键词：汽车；混合动力电动汽车；燃料电池；市场分析；PHEV
摘 要：The ORNL MA3T model developed for the U.S. Department of Energy is described and used to project PHEV purchase probabilities by different consumers.It is observed that consumers who have home charging, drive more frequently and live in urban area are more likely to buy a PHEV. Early adopters are projected to be more likely PHEV buyers in the early market, but the PHEV purchase probability by the late majority consumer can increase over time when PHEV gradually becomes a familiar product.