我们建议投资者增持中国铁路装备股，因为我们认为2016-17年的下行周期已经结束 -在这一下行阶段，该板块的每股盈利增速仅为4%，股价也下跌了5%，表现平均较MSCI中国指数落后了30%。

Down-cycle of past two years likely behind us 3

Now positive on China’s rail equipment sector; Buy CRRC H (on CL), CRSC 5

Driver 1: High-speed rail & subway installed base to expand 47% by 2020E 9

Driver 2: Domestic new tracks completion to see upcycle in 2018-20E 20

Driver 3: Belt & Road MU not a far away concept now 25

Driver 4: Utilization recovering with some OP leverage 29

Key risks 30

CRRC H/A (1766.HK/601766.SS): Rebound in sight; CRRC H to Buy (on CL), CRRC A to Neutral from

Sell 33

CRSC (3969.HK): Expect valuations to re-rate on industry upturn; reiterate Buy 36

Zhuzhou CRRC (3898.HK): Better outlook but more priced in than peers; to Buy from Neutral 40

New Hongtai (603016.SS): Initiate at Neutral on stable OEM business, Tianyi deal in focus 43

Appendix: M&A ranking table 47