关键词：Cadimum碲化物；制造业；光伏电池
摘 要：For those PV technologies that rely upon Te, In, and Ga, first-order observations and calculations hint that there may be resource constraints that could inhibit their successful deployment at a SunShot level. These are only first-order approximations, however, and the possibility for an expansion in global Te, In, and Ga supplies needs to be considered in the event that there are upward revisions in their demand and prices.In this study, we examine the current, mid-term, and long-term prospects of Tellurium (Te) for use in PV. We find that the current global supply base of Te would support <10 GW of annual traditional CdTe PV manufacturing production. But as for the possibility that the supply base for Te might be expanded, after compiling several preliminary cumulative availability curves we find that there may be significant upside potential in the supply base for this element - principally vis a vis increasing demand and higher prices. Primarily by reducing the Tellurium intensity in manufacturing and by increasing the recovery efficiency of Te in Cu refining processes, we calculate that it may prove affordable to PV manufacturers to expand the supply base for Te such that 100 GW, or greater, of annual CdTe PV production is possible in the 2030 - 2050 timeframe.