Last week was characterized by a relatively stable price situation in Ukrainian wheat market. Export prices for milling wheat with 12.5% protein (2nd grade) remained within USD 185-186/MT FOB, and those for wheat with 11.5% protein (3rd grade) – at USD 182-184/MT FOB for February-March delivery.The prices were supported by wheat strengthening in the world market, as well as by persistent demand from importers.But it should be noted, there is no many Ukrainian wheat left for export. During the first half of the current season Ukraine exported more than 5 MMT of wheat with protein content higher than 11%.Moreover, market operators informed that in January nearly 700 KMT of milling wheat were ready for export to India, and about 400 KMT – to Egypt and the European Union. The wheat export program is

almost completed in Ukraine, and the importers’ demand is expected to switch to Russian wheat,where a half of export capacity is still available.

进入农历新的一年，在国内脱虚向实，国际面临特朗普执政的不确定环境下，避开泡沫或许成为选股的首要考量因素，对于农业2 月选股思路而言，安全边际是关键。

The Philippines is an agrarian country, with half of its population living in the rural areas and being engaged in farming. Agriculture and forestry contributed some 8.8% to the national GDP on its own,and some 10.3% if fisheries are included, official data showed. Agriculture in the Philippines has been struggling with fragmentation and low levels of technological adoption and specialisation, as

highlighted by its flagging GVA over the 2011-2015 period. Yet the sector enjoys good fundamentals in the face of farming traditions, a large farming population and good global positions in several subsectors such as coconut and rice growing, sugar manufacturing and fisheries. Additional favourable factors include a growing population, an expanding food processing industry and a government focus on reforms.

The Australian vegetable-growing industry is an important part of Australian agriculture, contributing around 6 per cent ($3.4 billion) to the gross value of agricultural production in 2014–15 (ABS 2016).Between 2006–07 and 2014–15, the estimated average farm cash income of Australian vegetable growers remained relatively steady, although both average total cash receipts and average total cash costs increased. This reflects an increase in the average size of vegetable-growing farms.In 2015–16 (the most recent survey year) average farm cash income of Australian vegetable-growing farms is estimated to have increased to around $249 000 per farm. The financial performance of vegetable farmers improved in all states except South Australia and Western Australia.

“一号文件”正式发布，农业供给侧改革成为重中之重。自 2015 年底中央首次提出农业供给侧改革以来，农业供给侧改革相关政策密集出台。2016 年底中央经济工作会议把农业供给侧改革被提升到新高度。2017 年中央“一号文件”于 2 月 5 日公开发布，重点聚焦在农业供给侧改革方面。

全国粮食流通工作会议 1 月 7 日在北京召开，国家粮食局副局长徐鸣在会上明确了 2017 年中国粮食流通工作的七大着力点：一是建设粮食产后服务体系，以开展代储存、代烘干、代质检、代加工、代销售“五代”业务为重点，为新型农业经营主体和小农户提供专业化服务，2017 年将选择一批产粮大县开展试点，根据粮食产量、商品量、布局等情况和需要，每县建设 3—5 个产后服务中心并给予必要支持。

2016 年 12 月 29 日，《中共中央国务院关于稳步推进农村集体产权制度改革的意见》发布，明确提出要科学确认农村集体经济组织成员身份，明晰集体所有产权关系，发展新型集体经济；管好用好集体资产，建立符合市场经济要求的集体经济运行新机制，促进集体资产保值增值；落实农民的土地承包权、宅基地使用权、集体收益分配权和对集体经济活动的民主管理权利，形成有效维护农村集体经济组织成员权利的治理体系。

最早于 2015 年 11 月十八届五中全会提出，明确表示要调整粮食结构以及实行粮食价格市场化。在此之后，为消化玉米过量库存，国家取消了原先实行的玉米临储收购政策，并对玉米深加工企业进行补贴（目前东北地区玉米深加工补贴每吨在 100-250 元不等），我国玉米价格形成机制逐渐由原来的政府主导转变成市场定价，内外盘联动增强。

2017 年中央一号文件公布，文件提出，当前农业的主要矛盾由总量不足转变为结构性矛盾，矛盾的主要方面在供给侧。我国农产品供给已经由“总量平衡、丰年有余”转变为“阶段性过剩，结构性紧缺”，我们认为，农业供给侧结构性改革就是要从农业的生产端入手，优化农业产业生产经营体系。

新疆经济工作会议提出,2017 年疆内固定资产投资 1.5 万亿元,同比增长 50%。区域基建迎来大拐点,疆内水泥需求 2017 年提升,格局改善确定性高。而农业板块具有两大滞涨股显著受益：中粮屯河参股的屯河水泥是新疆三大水泥企业之一，有望扭亏为盈，弹性巨大；基建带动猪肉需求，疆内猪肉龙头天康生物受益。