家庭农场开始温和去产能，受限于环保、老龄化和资金问题，规模扩张不易。多数家庭农场已经开始温和去产能，除个别完全淘汰之外，多数养殖户规模出现小幅下降。生猪出栏体重与行情相关度高，行情越差外销重量越轻，当前出栏生猪体重大多轻于2017年和2016年。

Food security and environmental concerns are driving change in the Asian agribusiness sector, with agricultural giants such as China and India modernising their production complexes by rationalising support policies and addressing excessive use of inputs. Australia and China will lead in the race to integrate IoT technology in their agribusiness sectors, while frontier markets in the Mekong struggle to improve traceability and quality control systems. Meanwhile, consumer preferences will be affected by dietary shifts and the region will see considerable uncertainty owing to China’s ongoing trade dispute with the US.

Rice production will see modest but slowly strengthening growth over the coming years, mainly driven by improved varieties and increased access to inputs. Nevertheless, energy shortages and poor yields - mainly a result of the patchy availability of new varieties of rice seeds - will curtail more impressive increases in production. Across our five-year forecast period to 2022 we continue to see growth in rice production outpacing growth in rice consumption, consolidating the reversal in the hierarchy which took place in our Q218 update. Moreover, we believe the country will remain an important exporter of rice over the medium term.

The 2018/2019 season, which began harvesting in June, will see wheat production weaken from the record output of the 2017/2018 season. Nonetheless, we still forecast the third highest wheat production on record. In the long term Russia will continue growing its share of the global wheat export market.