After 17 straight profitable quarters, airlines based in the United States can be expected to keep the winning streak going in 2018 and beyond. Even as the industry’s two largest operating costs – fuel and labor – edge up, a combination of persistent demand for air travel that’s outpacing the overall economic growth and newfound discipline on adding capacity is keeping network and value carriers in the black. A return to growth in passenger yield – the measure of the average fare paid per mile per passenger – is an example of the industry’s enduring strength. After years in decline, year-over-year yield rose 2.3 percent in second quarter 2017, driven primarily by network carriers’ capacity restraint. Passenger yield fell 13.4 percent from 2014 through 2016, hitting a year-over-year quarterly low in third quarter 2016 of 13.4 cents. The systemwide yield by second quarter 2017 was 13.9 cents.

The production of base metals in Indonesia stagnated in 2016 as oversupply on the global markets depressed metal prices. Additionally, demand from China, which traditionally accounts for about 50%- 60% of global metal consumption, weakened in 2015-2016 and led to worsening sector economics. In 2016, Indonesia’s aluminium ingot production decreased by 4.5% y/y to 245,500 tonnes, crude steel output declined by 2.2% y/y to 4.7mn tonnes, while tin metal and nickel volumes shrank by 10.3% y/y and 4.5% y/y, respectively.

Turkey has the youngest population in Europe, with an estimated median age of 30.9 years in 2017. That is slightly above the median age of the world’s population (30.4 years) but below the EU’s median age of 42.9 years. The crude death rate in Turkey, at 5.8 per 1,000 population in 2016, is below the average of 5.0 for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) but well above the world and EU averages of 7.6 and 10 respectively. Government efforts to expand the quality and availability of healthcare mean that Turkey has experienced the largest gain in life expectancy at birth of any country in the world since 1970, according to OECD data. Life expectancy increased to 75.8 years in 2016, from 65.3 years in 1992. The county has set a target for life expectancy to be 85 years by 2023, when it will celebrate the 100th anniversary of its foundation as a republic.

Russia’s passenger traffic has been on a decline since 2000. The transportation sector lost about 15% or 3.4bn passengers between 2011 and 2016. The main reason was the economic crisis that erupted in 2014 on the back of collapsing energy prices and the sanctions some Western countries imposed on Russia following its annexation of Crimea. The number of passengers carried in the country in 2016 fell by 2.3% y/y to 18.7bn. Buses were the most preferred mode of transport in the country, accounting for 60% of the passenger traffic in 2016. Subway transport came next with a share of 18%, with the bulk of the traffic concentrated in larger cities, mainly the capital Moscow and St. Petersburg. Some 8% of the passengers in 2016 used trolleybuses, 7% travelled by tram and 6% by train. The railways, however, were the only main transportation mode to register an increase of the passenger traffic in the 2011-2016 period. The number of railway passengers increased by cumulative 10% in the said period and subway passengers inched up by 0.5%. Bus passengers, on the other hand, shrank by 16%, tram passengers fell by a third and trolleybus passengers dropped by 33% between 2011 and 2016. The marine and air passenger traffic also recorded higher demand, the marine passenger traffic expanding eight times between 2011 and 2016, and airline passengers surging by 54% over the same period. However, the marine and air passengers made up just 1% of all.

Since the economic crisis hit Russia in 2014-2016, the share of food spending in total household spending rose. In 2017, food and non-alcohol drinks made up 34% of the average household expenditure, up from 30% in the pre-crisis year 2013. At the same time, spending on apparel and footwear declined, with its share falling from 12% in 2013 to 9% in 2017. Over the 2011-2017 period, household consumption expenditures in nominal terms rose at a CAGR of 7%. The annual growth in the pre-crisis period 2011-2013 was around 10% and went down to about 5% during the crisis years of 2014-2016. In real terms, in 2015 and 2016, the average household expenditures shrank by 12% cumulatively, according to the volume index of final consumption expenditures as calculated by the statistics office.

Average life expectancy in Romania in 2015 was 78.7 years for females and 71.5 years for males. These are both below the EU average, which was 83.3 for females and 77.9 for males. However, they are an improvement on Romania’s 2012 levels of 70.9 years for men and 78.1 for women. At 5.6 years, the gender gap in Romania is bigger than the EU average. In the same period the infant mortality rate declined from 9 per 1,000 live births in 2012 to 7.6 in 2016. Respiratory system diseases are most common among the new cases declared by Romania’s family doctors in 2016, followed by diseases of the digestive system and of the nervous system.

In 2017, the oil and gas extraction index rebounded from the slump in 2016. The country’s natural gas production increased in volume terms by 7.3% y/y in 2017, whereas crude oil output volumes were reduced by 5.8% y/y. Value wise, the production of crude oil and natural gas surged cumulatively by 13% y/y to RON 12.9bn on the price increase of energy commodities on the global markets. In 2016, natural gas producers in Romania scaled back output volumes due to intensified competition from imported gas as import prices fell below domestic gas prices. However, in 2017, the oversupply condition on the European gas markets eased, prices rose and the Romanian companies ramped up production volumes again.

In October 2017, the IMF revised its forecasts for Poland’s economic growth in 2017 and 2018 upwards to 3.8% and 3.3%, respectively, compared with its April expectations of 3.4% and 3.2%. In the short term, the IMF expects the momentum to continue, driven mainly by robust private consumption, and aided by wage growth, a minimum wage hike and the Family 500+ child support programme. However, certain factors could impede Poland’s growth in the medium term, particularly its shrinking workforce, which is the result of emigration, an ageing population and low participation in the labour force. Other factors likely to have a negative effect on future growth rates are: slowing growth of TFP (total factor productivity); the low level of private investments; and the potential reduction of EU funds (essential for infrastructure projects so far) after the current 2014-2020 programme. An increase in labour force participation and other labour market policies are seen as essential to secure high growth rates for Poland in future. More spending on R&D and infrastructure could also help, by boosting productivity and private investment. The latter could also be facilitated by reducing burdens on start-ups and deregulating professional services.

The introduction of a 6% GST in April 2015 had a significant impact on consumer spending in 2015. The effect of the GST manifested itself first in a strong growth in consumption prior to its introduction, while the overall volume index of retail trade grew at a rate exceeding 9% y/y in the preceding quarters, as consumers made big-ticket purchases to avoid the 6% tax. The strong spending growth pre-GST was followed by a post-GST moderation, which also had a noticeable negative effect on the overall retail trade index and the F&B and Tobacco subindex. Similarly, the planned zero rate of the GST effective June 1, 2018 that Malaysia’s newly elected government announced in mid-May 2018, is expected to considerably improve consumer sentiment in the country in the short- to mid-term.

After two straight years of decline, the motor vehicle production in Indonesia resumed growth in 2017, rising by 1.9% y/y to 7.5mn units. The increased export demand for motorcycles and PCs was the main growth driver, while the domestic market weakened. Motorcycles, which made up 84% of the overall output in 2017, witnessed a 1.6% y/y growth in production to 6.3mn units. The production in the PC segment edged 1.4% y/y up to more than 982,000 units. The CV segment expanded the most, up by 12% to 234,260 units. The Indonesian automobile production is sufficient to cover the domestic demand. Indeed, in 2017, it accounted for 108% of the overall domestic sales.