我们关于家用电器行业2022 年中期投资策略为：盈利企稳初已现，疫 后复苏显实力。虽然家电内需面临疫情反复带来的冲击以及外销较高基 数压力，但在业绩端已经呈现明显拐点，我们坚定看好原材料、地产边 际缓和背景下，细分龙头加速突围。

1 家电板块回顾：厨电领跌，白电小家电承压 ......................................................................................................... 1

1.1 行情回顾：年初至今厨电板块跌幅较大 ....................................................................................................... 1

1.2 机构持仓：机构及北向资金更青睐白电及清洁电器板块龙头 .................................................................... 2

2 2022H1 的预期差：原材料高位运行，需求受压制 ................................................................................................. 5

2.1 供给：原材料价格回落比预期晚 .................................................................................................................. 5

2.2 内需：疫情反复致需求恢复比预期慢 ........................................................................................................... 7

2.3 出口：近期人民币贬值速度比预期快 ........................................................................................................... 8

3 2022H2 的确定性：盈利能力逐季改善，潜在需求仍大 ........................................................................................10

3.1 供给：原材料价格同比回落，盈利拐点明确 ..............................................................................................10

3.2 内需：地产潜在引致需求仍大，消费补贴利好家电需求释放 ...................................................................12

3.2.1 地产政策持续宽松&后周期估值筑底，疫后复苏潜在需求仍大 ......................................................12

3.2.2 家电消费补贴等政策有望加速需求释放 ...........................................................................................15

3.3 出口：冰洗出口或持续承压，海运价格边际回落.......................................................................................18

3.3.1 2022H2 海外需求走弱，冰洗出口承压 ..............................................................................................18

3.3.2 2022 年2 月以来海运价格边际回落 ...................................................................................................20

4 投资策略：盈利企稳初已现，疫后复苏显实力 .....................................................................................................20

4.1 板块估值处历史低位，未来有望拐点向上 ..................................................................................................20

4.2 重点个股：竞争加剧，优选细分赛道龙头 ..................................................................................................21

4.2.1 白电：渠道改革与品牌出海为核心关键 ...........................................................................................21

4.2.2 厨电：渠道下沉与品类拓展为核心关键 ...........................................................................................22

4.2.3 小家电：颜值与功能拓展为核心关键 ...............................................................................................23

4.2.4 照明电工：渠道下沉与品类融合为核心关键 ....................................................................................24

5 风险提示 ..................................................................................................................................................................25