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国防军工行业:军工三季报结构化特征持续,看好“十四五“下半场发展机遇
军工板块三季报结构化特征持续,营收保持稳健增长,盈利能力小幅下 滑。截至目前,我们选取的军工板块91 家上市公司均发布了2023 年第 三季度报。91 家公司2023 年前三季度共实现营业收入4136.4 亿元,同 比增长15.23%,实现归母净利润319.01 亿元,同比增长11.97%。此外, 91 家公司的整体毛利率为20.42%(+0.02pct);净利率为7.71%(- 0.22pct);ROE 为4.55%(-0.01pct),盈利能力小幅下滑。主要受到降 价因素的影响,未来随着军工行业成本控制成为企业经营的重要指标, 盈利能力下滑趋势将逐步改善。
一、核心观点 .................................................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 军工行业三季报结构化特征持续,看好十四五下半场发展机遇 .................................................................. 1
1.2 板块高性价比更加凸显处于底部区间,建议坚定加大配置力度 .................................................................. 4
1.3 投资策略:核心推荐高景气龙头,重点关注军贸、国改受益标的 .............................................................. 5
二、每周板块数据回顾 .................................................................................................................................................... 6
2.1 板块指数 ............................................................................................................................................................. 6
2.2 个股表现 ............................................................................................................................................................. 6
2.3 板块估值 ............................................................................................................................................................. 7
2.4 融资余额 ............................................................................................................................................................. 7
2.5 新股跟踪 ............................................................................................................................................................. 8
2.6 全军武器装备采购信息网需求跟踪 ................................................................................................................ 11
2.7 重点公司盈利预测与估值................................................................................................................................ 12
2.8 军工基金复盘 ................................................................................................................................................... 13
三、投资策略:当前处于三重底部,建议加大配置力度 ........................................................................................... 14
四、行业动态 .................................................................................................................................................................. 16
4.1 国际动态 ........................................................................................................................................................... 16
4.2 国内动态 ........................................................................................................................................................... 16
五、一周上市公司公告 .................................................................................................................................................. 17
六、近期重点报告 .......................................................................................................................................................... 19
风险分析 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 22