2022 年回顾：保险指数跌5.51%，较沪深300 取得+16.12%的超额收益，较万得全A 取得+13.15%的超额收益。个股涨幅排名：国寿+23.36%>人保+11.06%>平安-6.76%>太保-9.59%>新华-22.63%。1-3Q22 的NBV 增速：国寿-15.4%、平安-26.6%、太保-37.8%、新华-48.5%。个股涨幅与基本面基本对应。权益资产表现不佳拖累总投资收益率，资产减值压力大幅减轻。

1.保险股2022 年股价及业绩表现....................................................................................................................................... 3
1.1 保险股较沪深300、万得全A 取得超额收益.......................................................................................................... 3
1.2 寿险：新单保费增速分化，NBVM 持续承压，NBV 降幅逐步收窄................................................................... 4
1.3 产险：保费增速呈高位下行，综合成本率略有下降..............................................................................................5
1.4 资产端：资本市场拖累影响较大..............................................................................................................................6
2.负债端：虽有改善但仍偏弱............................................................................................................................................. 8
2.1 产品：储蓄险对保费规模维稳仍然重要..................................................................................................................8
2.2 渠道：个险渠道逐步复苏，银保渠道持续发力....................................................................................................12
2.3 各上市险企2023 年NBV 预测................................................................................................................................13
3.资产端：关注利率走势、股市表现和涉房资产........................................................................................................... 17
3.1 涉房资产：物权投资占比高的业绩弹性或最大，平安最为受益........................................................................17
3.2 经济复苏有望带动利率上行，股市当前估值处于合理偏低位置........................................................................19
3.3 关注IFRS 9 和IFRS 17 的同步实施......................................................................................................................20
4.投资建议........................................................................................................................................................................... 23
4.1 中国人寿：负债端优于同业，资产端弹性较足....................................................................................................24
4.2 中国平安：负债端压力缓解，涉房投资资产质量&收益率改善。.................................................................... 25
4.3 中国太保：负债端明显改善.................................................................................................................................... 26
风险提示.............................................................................................................................................................................. 27