我们仍然预计未来严厉的调控措施将令房价下降，但较当前水平的降幅(10%)将小于我们此前对 A/B 类城市的降幅预测(15%-20%)，原因有两条：1) 今年以来上游行业带动中国经济复苏势头强于预期。倘若复苏传导至下游行业（即便是温和地传导），2017 年表现将好于 2014 年上一轮房地产行业下行周期（当时房价下跌15%-20%）。2) 尽管中央致力于增加土地供应，但 2017 年前三个月土地出让规模仍较 2014-16 年均值减少 16%（折年）。

Non-stop tightening to curb property price appreciation 4

Stronger macro backdrop, lower inventory pressure, resilient market sentiment... 7

…support less property price decline 13

Raising price assumption, NAV and 2017E-19E underlying EPS 16

Improving ROE to support higher valuation, increasing target prices 18

Company snapshots 26

KWG: Resumed growth momentum to drive valuation recovery; up to Buy 27

R&F: Attractive land bank portfolio supports growth & div. yield; onto CL 29

SMC: Weak fundamental; down to Sell on low valuation recovery potential 31

CFLD: Up TP by adopting sector-wide price assumption; reiterate Buy (CL) 33

Vanke (A): Refocusing on market share gain; up to Neutral 35

Gemdale: Up to Neutral post underperformance; recovery on track 37

Yanlord: Limited growth on high exposure to Type A cities; down to Neutral 39

Poly (A): Off CL, but maintain Buy on solid growth/return outlook 41

Disclosure Appendix 4