我们认为消费升级的潜力不可小觑，因为一小部分中端消费者的消费升级即可推动次高端白酒市场的显著增长。随着收入增长和富裕中产阶层扩大，我们仍看好贵州茅台、五粮液和泸州老窖等高端酒企；同时我们看好次高端白酒市场，尤其是像水井坊等酒企，因为该市场收入增速相对较快而且竞争较为温和。

Executive Summary: Follow the consumption upgrade trend 4

High/upper mid-end market: Most attractive due to consumption upgrade 5

Upper mid-end market: Moderate consolidation and high entry barrier 9

Swellfun: Premium brands to revive past success, initiate at Buy 13

King’s Luck: Deeply rooted in the Jiangsu market, initiate at Neutral 17

M&A rank for Swellfun and King’s Luck 25

Updating target prices for A-share spirits coverage: Roll over to 2018 27

信息披露附录30