年初至今，食品饮料板块整体下跌 6.13%，沪深 300 指数下跌 5.55%，行业 跑输沪深 300 指数 0.58 个百分点，位列中信 30 个一级行业下游。子板块中， 酒类下跌 2.74%，饮料下跌 6.06%，食品下跌 20.45%。与此同时， 食品饮 料板块绝对 PE 和 PB 分别为 45.91/8.99，相对沪深 300 估值溢价率为 3.48/5.79，目前板块整体估值仍高于中位数，相对沪深 300 估值溢价相较去 年有所收敛。我们认为， 行业在前期估值及业绩双升的背景下，面对上游成 本高企等的问题使得全年表现相对平淡。

1.复盘—多重因素压制板块整体表现 ...........................................................................................................................6
1.1 行情回顾 ............................................................................................................................................................6
1.2 估值 ....................................................................................................................................................................7
1.3 北向资金跟踪 ....................................................................................................................................................7
2.白酒—坚守高端，把握弹性.......................................................................................................................................9
2.1 存量竞争格局下，市场集中度提升.................................................................................................................9
2.2 确定性最强的成长赛道—高端白酒...............................................................................................................11
2.3 次高端展现强大弹性，地产酒有望接力表现...............................................................................................13
3.大众品—优选竞争格局良好的子行业龙头 .............................................................................................................14
3.1 调味品 ..............................................................................................................................................................14
3.1.1 长期—量价共振促使行业景气持续............................................................................................................14
3.1.2 中期—细分品类下的高成长性赛道............................................................................................................15
3.1.3 短期—行业提价周期开启............................................................................................................................17
3.2 乳制品 ..............................................................................................................................................................19
3.2.1 乳制品行业规模远未触及天花板................................................................................................................19
3.2.2 各细分子品类发展程度不一........................................................................................................................20
3.2.3 巴氏杀菌乳迎发展契机................................................................................................................................22
3.2.4 上游原奶价格压力驱缓................................................................................................................................23
3.3 啤酒 ..................................................................................................................................................................24
3.3.1 啤酒消费中档偏低 消费升级空间巨大......................................................................................................25
3.3.2 成本上涨压力较大 加速产品结构升级......................................................................................................27
3.3.3 存量竞争格局 高端化或打破渠道壁垒......................................................................................................28
4.投资建议.....................................................................................................................................................................31
5.风险提示.....................................................................................................................................................................31