无论是用“利率-利差”轮盘还是产出与价格双缺口模型、产出一元周期模型，较为一致的经验都是通胀。国内资产推荐的配置顺序依然为：股票>商品>债券，股票风格上推荐科技、成长，其次是周期板块，主题关注内需、碳中和、新能源、半导体等。国内债市的焦点依然是经济增长走势，预计随着经济继续改善，债市也将迎来转折。对美国资产配置顺序维持不变：股票>商品>债券>现金。

1. 国内外大类资产月度复盘 .................................................................................................. 5

1.1 国内大类资产回报排序及归因 ............................................................................... 5

1.2 海外大类资产走势复盘 ........................................................................................... 8

1.3 国内外大类资产估值分析 ....................................................................................... 9

1.4 国内外大类资产间比价 .......................................................................................... 12

2. 全球经济体监测仪 ............................................................................................................ 14

2.1 全球央行和通胀预期观察 ..................................................................................... 14

2.2 发达经济体风险监测 ............................................................................................. 15

3.市场交易情绪及隐含的宏观信息 ...................................................................................... 16

3.1 Risk-Off 情绪：起于变异毒株、作用于股债汇 ................................................... 16

3.2 商品期货市场隐含的信息解读 ............................................................................. 18

3.3 全球资金流向复盘 ................................................................................................. 20

4.未来大类资产市场展望 ...................................................................................................... 21

4.1 基本面、资金面和政策面 ...................................................................................... 21

4.2“利率-利差”和产出缺口周期下的资配观点 ........................................................... 22

4.3 配置方案：建议增配股票和商品，布局债市风险 .............................................. 24

国信证券投资评级 ................................................................................................................. 25

分析师承诺 ............................................................................................................................. 25

风险提示 ................................................................................................................................. 25

证券投资咨询业务的说明 ..................................................................................................... 25