We have revised down our forecast for new vehicle sales in Mexico to a contraction of 10.0% in 2018. This will see sales volumes reach a total of 1.4mn units by year-end 2018. Breaking down this forecast, we expect passenger car sales to fall 13.4%, light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales to experience a 5.7% contraction, while heavy truck and bus sales grow 14% and 9.8% respectively. In 2018, we expect sales of passenger cars and LCVs (which includes pickup trucks and SUVs) to decline as rising borrowing costs, high fuel prices and uncertainty caused by the renegotiation of the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the mid-2018 presidential election weigh on consumer spending. For heavier commercial vehicles, we expect a boom in sales in 2018 due to regulation changes coming into effect on January 1 2019, which require new heavy commercial vehicles to be either Euro VI or EPA 2010 compliant. The implementation of this regulation will prompt heavy vehicle fleet owners to rush to buy cheaper Euro IV vehicles before the deadline.

Key View

SWOT

Autos SWOT 

Industry Forecast

Industry Forecast Scenario

Passenger Vehicles 

Commercial Vehicles 

Motorcycles 

Industry Risk/Reward Index

Americas Autos Sales Risk/Reward Index 

Americas Autos Production Risk/Reward Index 

Mexico Autos Sales Risk/Reward Index 

Mexico Autos Production Risk/Reward Index

Regional Overview

Latin America Overview

Mexico Demographic Outlook

Autos Methodology